31511 Olivella Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$179,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by KRJ Management, Inc.; Annual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/Family room combo; Kitchen/Dining combo; Separate shower; Tub shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $179,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,672.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $174,590 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,672
• List price: $179,990
• Delta: -27.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31504 Olivella Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$192	98
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+8%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	70
931 Pertuso Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+4%)	2mo	$139,890	$103	67
934 Pertuso Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+4%)	2mo	$221,990	$163	66
31448 Casacalenda Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$166,990	$115	66
31442 Casacalenda Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$198,990	$136	64
930 Pertuso Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-9%)	1mo	$135,890	$114	60
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	59
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	59
934 Capracotta Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	59
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	58
946 Capracotta Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	2mo	$244,990	$168	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-60,939
• Equity at exit: $37,227

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,025
• Equity at exit: $21,587

Cash invested: $69,908 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,745/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $202,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-238	+0% $-324	+5% $-410	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-404	+0% $-324	+5% $-244	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-260	base $-324	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,418
• Closing costs: $7,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.43mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,990 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 600-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,990 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,990 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,990 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,990 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,990 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $200,090 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

17. 2026-05-08
    price $196,490 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

18. 2026-05-07
    price $196,490 567-char remark
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,990 Active 567-char remark
20. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,990 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,986
• − Property taxes: −$3,745
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,263
• Taxable loss: −$8,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $179,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $200,090 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $200,090 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $196,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $196,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,990 Zillow