Is 31511 Olivella Dr in Huffman, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-360/mo modeled cash flow at a $194,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 31511 Olivella Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,973/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.92

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.5/10.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.7/10.0

$194,990

31511 Olivella Dr · Huffman, TX 77336

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

2 garage spots
Built 2026
Listed 52 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi

Loading POIs…

🏗️ New construction. The $194,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,804.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
Market conditions: 738 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,140 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 4.56%
Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
DSCR: 0.73
GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $249,804
List price: $194,990
Delta: -27.95%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31505 Olivella Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	0mo	$199,990	$154	100
919 Capracotta Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	1mo	$180,990	$138	80
915 Pertuso Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-9%)	2mo	$148,990	$125	64
922 Lago Laceno Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$240,990	$166	63
920 Capracotta Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$149,991	$103	62
928 Capracotta Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$180,990	$125	61
904 Coperchiata Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	2mo	$192,090	$131	61
930 Capracotta Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	0mo	$187,990	$129	60
31422 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$248,990	$172	59
942 Pertuso Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-9%)	2mo	$147,990	$124	58
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$189,990	$131	58
31420 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$205,990	$141	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.8%
Equity multiple: 0.10×
Total profit: $-63,243
Equity at exit: $37,247

10-year hold

IRR: -24.1%
Equity multiple: -0.20×
Total profit: $-83,972
Equity at exit: $21,598

Cash invested: $69,945 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 60 active · 31 under contract
Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $175,915 ($130/sqft)
Median days on market: 25 d
This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +47.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

Home prices YoY: -1.8%
Active inventory: 738
Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,973 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,310
Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,747/yr
Insurance: −$104
HOA: −$192
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $197,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-187	-5% $-273	+0% $-360	+5% $-446	+10% $-532
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-438	+0% $-360	+5% $-282	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-296	base $-360	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,451
Closing costs: $7,494
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	23d	1	0.43mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,699	$1.25	15d	1	0.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: HOA managed by KRJ Management, Inc.Annual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (entry level: first floor)
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 13)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/Family room comboKitchen/Dining comboSeparate showerTub shower
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 25 events

2026-08-08

pricestatusdays on market $194,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-27

statusdays on market $179,990 Pending 52 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $179,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $179,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $179,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $179,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $179,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-17

remarks 600-char remark
2026-06-17

days on market $179,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $179,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $179,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $179,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $179,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $179,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $179,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $179,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $179,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $179,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $179,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $179,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-05-19

price $200,090 567-char remark

Show marketing remark (380 chars)

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.
2026-05-08

price $196,490 380-char remark

Show marketing remark (380 chars)

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.
2026-05-07

price $196,490 567-char remark
2026-05-06

listed $199,990 Active 567-char remark
2026-05-01

listed $199,990 Active 380-char remark

Show marketing remark (380 chars)

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,675
− Mortgage interest: −$13,993
− Property taxes: −$3,747
− Insurance: −$1,249
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
− Management: −$1,894
− HOA: −$2,304
− Depreciation: −$7,267
Taxable loss: −$8,673

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,082
After-tax cash flow: $-2,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,510–$19,530 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Falcon Ridge El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Huffman ISD
NCES district ID: 4823820
Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
Median HH income: $65,848
Composite: 30.61/100
National rank: #6195
State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,342
Household income: $96,404
Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
Current HPI: 472.03
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-05-21 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
2026-05-21 Price Changed $179,990 Zillow
2026-05-19 Price Changed $200,090 Zillow
2026-05-19 Price Changed $200,090 HARMLS
2026-05-08 Price Changed $196,490 Zillow
2026-05-07 Price Changed $196,490 HARMLS
2026-05-06 Listed $199,990 HARMLS
2026-05-01 Listed $199,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…