6814 Bens Lndg · Cove, TX 77523

$279,870

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2025 7,500 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quartz countertops with Ashen Grey Cabinets.

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $279,870 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-779/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,473 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	83
6818 Bens Lndg	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-11%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	80
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-3%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	80
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-1%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	78
510 Louis Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+5%)	2mo	$303,440	$157	78
6922 Bens Lndg	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-11%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	75
6703 Alejandro Pl	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,055 (+11%)	0mo	$341,580	$166	71
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-2%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	67
6830 Bens Lndg	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-15%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	66
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-14%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	61
218 San Marcos Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-7%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	50
155 Horn Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,052 (+11%)	2mo	$255,000	$124	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,251
• Equity at exit: $46,341

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-46,542
• Equity at exit: $26,872

Cash invested: $87,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,662/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $301,407

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $42	+0% $-65	+5% $-172	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-173	+0% $-65	+5% $43	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $14	base $-65	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,700
• Closing costs: $9,324
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.30mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.45mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	1.12mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	26d	1	1.28mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $279,870
3. 2026-04-08
   price $282,860
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $269,870 Active
5. 2026-03-06
   historical
6. 2026-02-25
   price $279,860
7. 2025-11-13
   price $289,370
8. 2025-10-21
   listed $309,370 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,410
• − Property taxes: −$4,662
• − Insurance: −$1,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,041
• Taxable loss: −$6,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $279,870 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $282,860 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $269,870 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $279,860 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $289,370 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $309,370 HARMLS