4937 Lower Elm St · South Fulton, GA 30349

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,528 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2020 2,787 sqft lot $164/sqft · 12% below area Est $283k · 12% under $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this well-maintained, single-owner townhome in a highly convenient location. Enjoy quick access to major transportation routes, the airport, and nearby employment centers, along with a variety of shopping, dining, and everyday amenities just minutes away. With strong rental activity in the area, this property also presents an excellent investment opportunity. Its practical layout and low-maintenance design make it a great option for a range of lifestyles. Don't miss your chance to own in a location that makes commuting and daily living simple and efficient-schedule your tour today.

Key facts

• Practical layout
• Quick access
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• SINGLE OWNER
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• QUICK ACCESS
• STRONG RENTAL ACTIVITY
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($762/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 651 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,748 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,432
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4957 Lower Elm St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-0%)	7mo	$245,000	$161	91
4991 Lower Elm St	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,424 (-7%)	0mo	$199,900	$140	79
5019 Lower Elm St	0.26mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,476 (-3%)	1mo	$125,320	$85	77
4992 Lower Elm St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,679 (+10%)	11mo	$247,000	$147	68
5076 Lower Elm St	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-8%)	17mo	$200,000	$143	56
960 Belfry Ter	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,539 (+1%)	20mo	$297,000	$193	49
5063 Lower Elm St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+13%)	14mo	$253,000	$146	48
1008 Belfry Ter	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,685 (+10%)	19mo	$300,000	$178	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $135,863
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $388,827
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30349

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 651
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,537/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Derrick Rd Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,724	$2.65	1d	32	0.40mi
4365 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,823	$1.25	43d	1	1.01mi
4407 Sparrow Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2055	$2,335	$1.14	1d	10	1.05mi
4108 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,400	$1.34	43d	1	1.14mi
4095 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2196	$2,023	$0.92	43d	1	1.15mi
4407 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	43d	1	1.19mi
4420 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,130	$1.31	43d	1	1.25mi
4223 Reeshemah St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,995	$1.08	5d	1	1.27mi
4064 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1874	$1,895	$1.01	24d	1	1.28mi
4062 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1874	$1,910	$1.02	24d	1	1.29mi
4056 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1174	$1,895	$1.61	24d	1	1.31mi
5055 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1692	$2,153	$1.27	1d	76	1.35mi
4551 Derby Loop Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.0	2152	$2,099	$0.98	43d	1	1.35mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	43d	1	1.50mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	22d	1	1.50mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,501	$1.67	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $250,000 Under Contract 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   status Back On Market 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   Discover this well-maintained, single-owner townhome in a highly convenient location. Enjoy quick access to major transportation routes, the airport, and nearby employment centers, along with a variety of shopping, dining, and everyday amenities just minutes away. With strong rental activity in the area, this property also presents an excellent investment opportunity. Its practical layout and low-maintenance design make it a great option for a range of lifestyles. Don't miss your chance to own in a location that makes commuting and daily living simple and efficient-schedule your tour today.

10. 2026-05-08
    status Under Contract 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Discover this well-maintained, single-owner townhome in a highly convenient location. Enjoy quick access to major transportation routes, the airport, and nearby employment centers, along with a variety of shopping, dining, and everyday amenities just minutes away. With strong rental activity in the area, this property also presents an excellent investment opportunity. Its practical layout and low-maintenance design make it a great option for a range of lifestyles. Don't miss your chance to own in a location that makes commuting and daily living simple and efficient-schedule your tour today.

11. 2026-04-09
    listed $250,000 New 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Discover this well-maintained, single-owner townhome in a highly convenient location. Enjoy quick access to major transportation routes, the airport, and nearby employment centers, along with a variety of shopping, dining, and everyday amenities just minutes away. With strong rental activity in the area, this property also presents an excellent investment opportunity. Its practical layout and low-maintenance design make it a great option for a range of lifestyles. Don't miss your chance to own in a location that makes commuting and daily living simple and efficient-schedule your tour today.

12. 2025-07-01
    historical
13. 2025-02-21
    price $255,000
14. 2025-01-22
    listed $299,900 New
15. 2024-08-13
    historical
16. 2024-05-30
    price $310,000
17. 2024-04-03
    listed $315,000 New
18. 2019-12-11
    soldstatus $499,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$763/yr (+$64/mo · 49.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,537
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$841
• After-tax cash flow: $1,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — South Fulton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 127,674
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,872
• Household income: $67,023
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4258.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.01%
• Current HPI: 407.99
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-49.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listed $299,900 GAMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $310,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-03 Listed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $499,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,537 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.