304 2nd St SE · Hinckley, MN 55037

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1958 0.29 ac lot $104/sqft · 31% below area Est $223k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#572 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hinckley-Finlayson School District (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #272 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,120 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,951
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $87,959
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $275,524
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55037

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,701/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $141,834

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    historical Contingent - Inspection 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

14. 2026-05-06
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

15. 2026-05-06
    historical 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $200,000 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

17. 2026-04-13
    price $200,000 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

18. 2026-04-13
    historical $219,999 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    VIRTUALLY STAGED. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home in Hinckley offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. The main level features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the living spaces, along with a standout three-sided Lake Superior Split Rock wood-burning fireplace that serves as a unique focal point. With five bedrooms, this home provides excellent flexibility for rental opportunities, multi-generational living, or additional living spaces. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard—ideal for tenants, entertaining, or future improvements. A great opportunity to invest in a property with space, character, and upside potential in a convenient Hinckley location.

19. 2019-02-02
    historical 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This home has many updates,includes his and her closets and sinks.The kitchen has stainless steel energy saving appliances .A deepsink with pot filler faucet.Tumbled Traretine back splash.A vaulted ceiling in the livingroom,also includes a three sided lake superior split rock wood burning fireplace.The home is located near several parks and schools.The yard has mature trees,patio,and a outdoor brick fireplace.

20. 2013-05-22
    soldstatus $139,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This home has many updates,includes his and her closets and sinks.The kitchen has stainless steel energy saving appliances .A deepsink with pot filler faucet.Tumbled Traretine back splash.A vaulted ceiling in the livingroom,also includes a three sided lake superior split rock wood burning fireplace.The home is located near several parks and schools.The yard has mature trees,patio,and a outdoor brick fireplace.

21. 2013-05-22
    soldstatus $139,000

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This home has many updates,includes his and her closets and sinks.The kitchen has stainless steel energy saving appliances .A deepsink with pot filler faucet.Tumbled Traretine back splash.A vaulted ceiling in the livingroom,also includes a three sided lake superior split rock wood burning fireplace.The home is located near several parks and schools.The yard has mature trees,patio,and a outdoor brick fireplace.

22. 2012-10-26
    listed $139,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This home has many updates,includes his and her closets and sinks.The kitchen has stainless steel energy saving appliances .A deepsink with pot filler faucet.Tumbled Traretine back splash.A vaulted ceiling in the livingroom,also includes a three sided lake superior split rock wood burning fireplace.The home is located near several parks and schools.The yard has mature trees,patio,and a outdoor brick fireplace.

23. 2012-10-26
    listed $139,900

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This home has many updates,includes his and her closets and sinks.The kitchen has stainless steel energy saving appliances .A deepsink with pot filler faucet.Tumbled Traretine back splash.A vaulted ceiling in the livingroom,also includes a three sided lake superior split rock wood burning fireplace.The home is located near several parks and schools.The yard has mature trees,patio,and a outdoor brick fireplace.

24. 2000-09-17
    soldstatus $120,000
25. 2000-07-14
    historical
26. 1999-07-14
    listed $125,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,701 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,701 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,701
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hinckley-Finlayson School District
• NCES district ID: 2714070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,836
• Composite: 23.2/100
• National rank: #7942
• State rank: #272 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hinckley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #572
• US rank: #13846

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinckley, MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,077

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.68%
• Current HPI: 251.5378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+58.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $219,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-22 Sold (MLS) $139,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-22 Sold (MLS) $139,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-26 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-26 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-14 Listed $125,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,701 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.