443 N Wilson Ave · Morehead, KY 40351

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 2.62 ac lot Est $211k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is located downtown Morehead close to St Claire and Morehead State University. It is a fixer upper with 2.478 surveyed acres a very large lot for the downtown Morehead.

Key facts

• Downtown morehead
• Large lot
• 2.478 surveyed acres

Tags

• DOWNTOWN MOREHEAD
• 2.478 SURVEYED ACRES
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 2.62 acres (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: House; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,560 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property; Few trees on the lot; Public water available; Not waterfront; No notable view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.7% in Morehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#345 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, amenities F.
• Rowan County (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #74 of 165 in KY (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcbrayer Elementary School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #234 of 676 statewide, top 36%, 562 students, 54% FRL); Rowan County Middle School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #68 of 217 statewide, top 32%, 716 students, 62% FRL); Rowan County Senior High School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #122 of 254 statewide, top 49%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rowan County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.00%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
841 North Wilson Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,444 (-7%)	12mo	$209,000	$145	48
1007 Knapp Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+11%)	6mo	$195,000	$112	40
614 Hill Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-5%)	15mo	$200,000	$135	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,547
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $57,527
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40351

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $890/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $582	+0% $546	+5% $511	+10% $475
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $476	+0% $546	+5% $616	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $578	base $546	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Lyons Ave Morehead, KY	4.0	2.0	1996	$1,850	$0.93	4d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 173-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$890
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $5,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rowan County
• NCES district ID: 2105100
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,139
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6742
• State rank: #74 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morehead

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #16479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morehead, KY
• County: Rowan County · 22,322 people
• City population: 22,322
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 22,322
• Household income: $51,835
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 589.0

Population outlook (Rowan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,518 people
• By 2030: 29,242 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 32,949 · +19.7%
• By 2050: 37,128 · +34.9%
• By 2075: 49,130 · +78.5%
• By 2100: 59,014 · +114.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rowan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.3% · R 63.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 2.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+7.8 2008: D+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.28%
• Current HPI: 203.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $125,000 ImagineMLS