511 Averill Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 7,000 sqft lot $98/sqft · at area comps Est $90k · at est. ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMING SOON!! Prophotos to be uploaded by Wednesday. Excellent opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers! This move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is also rent-ready, making it an ideal addition to any investment portfolio or a perfect place to call home. The property features a functional floor plan, spacious living areas, and a detached 2-car garage offering ample parking and storage space. Recent updates and well-maintained condition provide peace of mind and immediate usability. Whether you're looking for a turnkey rental property with income potential or an affordable home to start building equity, this property checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near shopping, dining

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Move in ready
• Detached garage

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RECENT UPDATES
• WELL MAINTAINED CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 920 (per public records); Lot around 0.1607 acres (per public records)
• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with space for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Private ownership; House structure
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with poured walls, 8+ ft ceiling height; Cable available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.13%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,171
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 16.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 La Motte Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0	850 (-8%)	5mo	$60,000	$71	82
610 Superior Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	3mo	$139,000	$154	79
404 Ballman Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	892 (-3%)	4mo	$99,900	$112	78
247 S Hartnett Ave Unit 1/2	0.75mi	2/1.0	902 (-2%)	2mo	$75,000	$83	61
435 N Clay Ave	0.57mi	2/1.5	972 (+6%)	3mo	$155,000	$159	59
613 Plantmore Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+10%)	4mo	$119,900	$119	57
941 Highmont Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	3mo	$105,900	$126	56
1006 Highmont Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	4mo	$109,900	$114	56
227 Meadowcrest Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	3mo	$129,900	$135	53
914 Highmont Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	816 (-11%)	2mo	$92,400	$113	51
125 Forestwood Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (+12%)	3mo	$77,900	$75	46
100 Florwood Ct	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,004 (+9%)	3mo	$79,900	$80	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $17,718
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $78,936
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,100/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $427	+0% $402	+5% $376	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $352	+0% $402	+5% $452	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $425	base $402	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.04mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	0.05mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.15mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	0.16mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	45d	1	0.17mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	45d	1	0.20mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	17d	1	0.35mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	24d	1	0.52mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	0.66mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.67mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	24d	1	0.74mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	15d	1	0.84mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	0.90mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.91mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	0.92mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	0.94mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	0.96mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	1.00mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	8d	1	1.03mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	1.07mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	1.08mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	1.09mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	1.11mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	1.12mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	8d	1	1.14mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	45d	1	1.18mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	45d	1	1.18mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	1.19mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	24d	1	1.21mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	8d	1	1.23mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	45d	1	1.24mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	45d	1	1.24mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	24d	1	1.25mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	45d	1	1.25mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	45d	1	1.28mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	13d	1	1.37mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	19d	1	1.38mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	45d	1	1.43mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	8d	1	1.43mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $90,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $90,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $104,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $104,900 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-02-06
   status Active 321-char remark
9. 2026-02-04
   price $104,900 321-char remark
10. 2026-01-30
    price $105,000 321-char remark
11. 2026-01-23
    price $110,000 321-char remark
12. 2026-01-17
    price $119,000 321-char remark
13. 2026-01-14
    price $124,000 321-char remark
14. 2025-12-26
    listed $125,000 Active 321-char remark
15. 1997-12-29
    soldstatus
16. 1997-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,100
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $3,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $105,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $124,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,100 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.