Barton Plan · Taylor, TX 76574

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 410 Days on market

Good condition $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spring - Barton

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 409 days

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,016.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Taylor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Naomi Pasemann El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 649 students, 68% FRL); Taylor Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 651 students, 69% FRL); Taylor H S (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 907 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 508 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,532 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,016
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -8.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Greinert Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,640 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$152	97
136 Greinert Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,640 (0%)	3mo	$244,990	$149	95
136 Hartson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,640 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$152	95
100 Hartson Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+8%)	1mo	$264,990	$149	82
140 Greinert Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+8%)	2mo	$264,990	$149	82
124 Greinert Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,880 (+15%)	0mo	$269,990	$144	73
124 Hartson Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,880 (+15%)	2mo	$269,990	$144	71
112 Hartson Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,880 (+15%)	3mo	$259,990	$138	70
311 Greinert Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+13%)	4mo	$349,990	$189	69
1915 T H Johnson Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+1%)	4mo	$325,000	$196	59
1910 Oaklawn Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-5%)	4mo	$275,000	$176	56
1829 T H Johnson Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-12%)	1mo	$231,000	$159	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,168
• Equity at exit: $40,559

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-95,745
• Equity at exit: $23,519

Cash invested: $76,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $293,950 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76574

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 508
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,080/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,448

Max offer price $238,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-137	+0% $-231	+5% $-325	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-316	+0% $-231	+5% $-146	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-162	base $-231	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,004
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Greinert Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,950	$1.19	47d	1	0.01mi
136 Greinert Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,850	$1.13	0d	1	0.01mi
116 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1883	$2,100	$1.12	101d	1	0.03mi
120 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,925	$1.07	145d	1	0.03mi
108 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,950	$1.08	85d	1	0.03mi
124 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1880	$1,899	$1.01	0d	1	0.04mi
136 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,950	$1.19	0d	1	0.05mi
140 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	0d	1	0.05mi
211 Tribute Blvd Unit Front Main Unit Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1900	$4,250	$2.24	139d	1	0.05mi
124 Marcel Ct Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,795	$1.15	184d	1	0.54mi
125 Break Ave Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,149	$1.20	32d	1	0.54mi
157 Janice Taylor, TX	4.0	3.0	1944	$2,025	$1.04	0d	1	0.57mi
200 Janice Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	101d	1	0.57mi
3402 Crystal Cir Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$2,100	$1.55	22d	1	0.63mi
144 Onna St Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	1963	$2,100	$1.07	52d	1	0.64mi
180 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	3.0	1906	$1,950	$1.02	164d	1	0.66mi
172 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,800	$1.02	31d	1	0.67mi
801 Estes Park Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,200	$1.22	12d	1	0.67mi
801 Estes Park Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,200	$1.22	0d	1	0.67mi
120 Onna St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,150	$1.24	144d	1	0.68mi
113 Onna St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	45d	1	0.69mi
113 Onna St Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$1,995	$1.12	0d	1	0.69mi
113 Onna St Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$1,995	$1.12	23d	1	0.69mi
109 Gunther Way Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,100	$1.34	101d	1	0.72mi
3102 Don Hill Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,550	$1.31	10d	1	0.73mi
3007 Zachary Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,825	$1.12	124d	1	0.74mi
4200 Big Bend Trl Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,850	$1.10	5d	1	0.75mi
3004 Don Hill Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,800	$2.36	151d	1	0.77mi
3004 Don Hill Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$2,050	$1.71	40d	1	0.77mi
108 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,800	$1.12	162d	1	0.78mi
1006 Cottonbowl Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,300	$1.42	184d	1	0.83mi
2903 Don Hill Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,825	$1.12	10d	1	0.84mi
2003 Brewers Pl Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1475	$1,800	$1.22	53d	1	0.95mi
2204 Brewers Pl Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,875	$1.34	53d	1	0.98mi
2804 Crystal Cir Unit A Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,550	$1.24	10d	1	0.99mi
2109 Brewers Pl Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,950	$1.50	184d	1	0.99mi
2705 Jason Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,845	$0.99	7d	1	1.02mi
2705 Jason Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,845	$0.99	0d	1	1.02mi
2005 Whistling Way Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$1,999	$0.90	139d	1	1.05mi
2005 Whistling Way Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,050	$0.93	85d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 409 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $249,990 Active 408 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $249,990 Active 407 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 406 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $249,990 Active 404 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 403 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 402 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $249,990 Active 401 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 400 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 399 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $249,990 Active 398 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 396 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 395 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 394 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 393 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 392 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 391 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $249,990 Active 390 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 389 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $249,990 Active 388 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $249,990 Active 387 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 386 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 385 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 384 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 383 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 382 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $249,990 Active 381 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $249,990 Active 380 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 379 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 378 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $249,990 Active 377 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 376 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 375 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 374 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 373 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 372 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 371 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 370 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 369 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $249,990 Active 368 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $249,990 Active 366 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 365 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 364 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 363 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 362 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 361 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $249,990 Active 360 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 359 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,237
• − Property taxes: −$4,080
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$7,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,803
• After-tax cash flow: $-971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,200–$24,600 screening

The home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has potential for cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader range of potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Naomi Pasemann El F TX #3,836/4,322 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Taylor Middle F TX #1,407/1,662 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Taylor H S F TX #1,366/1,632 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taylor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,330
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8606
• State rank: #726 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #7013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 20,242
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,242
• Household income: $78,568
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 22% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.71%
• Current HPI: 227.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Listed $279,990 Zillow