4318 Essex St SE · Salem, OR 97301

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1981 $47/sqft · 43% above area Est $49k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet, well-maintained 1981 2BD/2BA in a Salem 55+ park. Prime spot near clubhouse & entrance. Spacious 1494 sqft open floor plan w/vaulted ceilings in living areas. NEW high-efficiency heat pump & furnace, NEW carpet in bedrooms, living, family & dining rms, NEW LVT in kitchen & breakfast nook. Newer roof (2019). Very private property featuring a yard, carport w/driveway parking & 3 sheds. Clubhouse w/community rm, gym, laundry, library, kitchen, billiard rm. Space rent+utilities (W/S/G) is $1362.78/mo.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• New carpet
• Newer roof

Tags

• HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAT PUMP
• NEW CARPET
• NEW LVT
• NEWER ROOF
• PRIVATE PROPERTY
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Meadowlark; Model/Manufacturer: Timberidge by Fuqua; Main level living area approximately 1,494
• Financial info: Land lease expires May 29, 2026
• HOA & community: 55+ senior community (Meadowlark Estates); Community amenities: commons, laundry, library, management, meeting room, water, weight room; Land lease (lot rent paid monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (tandem); RV/Boat storage; One parking space
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Electric hot water and fuel; Community water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (residential); Single-story / one level; Timberidge model by Fuqua; Territorial view; Resale
• Construction: Built in 1981; Pillar/post/pier foundation with skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered patio; Security lights; Tool shed; Yard; T-111 and wood siding; Paved road access; Level lot with trees; Leased land (monthly lot rent)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double sinks; Vaulted ceiling in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main with ensuite and double closet; Second bedroom on main
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level); Primary bathroom with walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning (heat pump)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Luxury vinyl plank flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet; Washer/dryer included; Laundry area; Double pane windows; Minimal steps/one level accessibility; Natural lighting; Walk-in shower; Utility room on main with exterior entry and sink
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with exterior entry, sink, and washer/dryer hookups; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (361 students, 76% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $70k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.25%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,725
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 43.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #332	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-5%)	10mo	$98,000	$69	74
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	73
4244 Eden St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+5%)	15mo	$92,500	$59	72
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #963	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+1%)	22mo	$120,000	$79	65
2232 42nd Ave SE #327	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	20mo	$55,000	$38	58
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-14%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	57
4497 Essex St SE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	14mo	$115,000	$89	54
2232 42nd Ave SE #901	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	21mo	$58,500	$44	51
2232 42nd Ave SE #202	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-10%)	22mo	$56,500	$42	50
2716 Oakland Lp SE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	22mo	$67,500	$52	48
2232 42nd Ave SE #776	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	12mo	$160,000	$123	48
2410 Lancaster Dr #949	0.21mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	17mo	$81,000	$63	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $33,207
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $74,547
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $578

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $810	-5% $790	+0% $771	+5% $751	+10% $731
Rent	-10% $648	-5% $709	+0% $771	+5% $832	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $806	-0.5pp $788	base $771	+0.5pp $752	+1.0pp $734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.08mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	15d	1	0.40mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.51mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	45d	1	0.66mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,799	$1.93	15d	1	0.83mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	15d	5	0.94mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.98mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	45d	1	1.09mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.21mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,554	$1.67	15d	25	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	15d	26	1.44mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.47mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $69,900 Active 529-char remark
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $69,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Quiet, well-maintained 1981 2BD/2BA in a Salem 55+ park. Prime spot near clubhouse & entrance. Spacious 1494 sqft open floor plan w/vaulted ceilings in living areas. NEW high-efficiency heat pump & furnace, NEW carpet in bedrooms, living, family & dining rms, NEW LVT in kitchen & breakfast nook. Newer roof (2019). Very private property featuring a yard, carport w/driveway parking & 3 sheds. Clubhouse w/community rm, gym, laundry, library, kitchen, billiard rm. Space rent+utilities (W/S/G) is $1362.78/mo.

18. 1994-05-26
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $8,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,071
• After-tax cash flow: $7,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+79.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $69,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $69,900 WVMLS
• 1994-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.