1556 Fm 254 S · Jasper, TX 75951

$104,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2025 3.41 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled within 3.413 acres of lush, untouched beauty stands a hidden gem - a 1200 sq ft unfinished new construction waiting to be crafted into your personalized retreat. Surrounded by mature hardwood and pine trees, the property boasts a mesmerizing long tree canopy-covered driveway that whispers tales of tranquility and seclusion. Here, unrestricted country living unfolds its arms in a welcoming embrace. Just minutes away lie the shimmering waters of Lake Sam Rayburn, where adventure awaits under the sun-kissed skies. The nearby Angelina and Neches rivers meander through landscapes painted with serenity and grace, inviting you to explore their timeless secrets. Embrace this rare opportunit

Key facts

• 3.413 acres
• 3.41 acre lot
• Built 2025

Tags

• 3.413 ACRES
• UNRESTRICTED COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Approximately 3.41 acres

Interior

• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.21%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $445
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $22,573
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $605/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $302	+0% $272	+5% $243	+10% $213
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $227	+0% $272	+5% $318	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $299	base $272	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $104,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on marketlisting id $109,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    status Active 979-char remark
17. 2026-03-11
    price $109,000 979-char remark
18. 2026-02-01
    listed $129,000 Active 979-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $605 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,298/yr (+$108/mo · 214.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$605
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,107
• − Management: −$1,107
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $1,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$396
• After-tax cash flow: $2,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $104,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-06-07 Listed $109,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $109,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $129,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $605 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.