83 County Road 4022 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$122,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 0.66 ac lot Est $199k · 39% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rear wooden deck
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR WOODEN DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD
• WILDEWOOD NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.66%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,912
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 County Road 4023	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	8mo	$179,900	$148	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,852
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $40,353
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,110/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $452	+0% $417	+5% $383	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $353	+0% $417	+5% $482	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $448	base $417	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $122,000 Active
4. 2019-10-29
   soldstatus Sold 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

5. 2019-09-19
   status Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

6. 2019-09-07
   status Option Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

7. 2019-05-16
   price $139,000 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

8. 2019-04-30
   listed $149,950 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Quiet area. Cycloned fenced. Double wide mobile with big front porch and deck on side and back. Two great storage buildings. Large living room. Kitchen has dark cabinets and island with sink and dishwasher. Appliances included. Detached carport. Home is all electric.

9. 2006-11-17
   soldstatus
10. 1991-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$2,110
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $3,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $4,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $122,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-16 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $149,950 HARMLS
• 2006-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,110 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.