303 Blakely Chappelear Rd · Gumlog, GA 30557

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other · 151 Days on market

Built 2023 1.68 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a calm, quiet place with charm on 1.68 acres. Enjoy the sounds of nature and explore your own backyard creek - perfect for relaxing or a little outdoor adventure. This property offers room to roam and plenty of potential. No traffic, just fresh air and country living.

Key facts

• 1.68 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #61 of 174 in GA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lavonia Elementary School (math 31% / reading 28%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 549 students, 68% FRL); Franklin County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 826 students, 60% FRL); Franklin County High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #93 of 424 statewide, top 23%, 1,048 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,234 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $100,021
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $301,572
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30557

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $179,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-70	+0% $-139	+5% $-208	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-201	+0% $-139	+5% $-77	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-88	base $-139	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2025-12-03
    historical
12. 2025-10-14
    price $199,900
13. 2025-09-19
    price $210,000
14. 2025-08-30
    price $213,000
15. 2025-08-21
    price $215,000
16. 2025-07-30
    price $217,500
17. 2025-06-30
    listed $199,900 New 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a calm, quiet place with charm on 1.68 acres. Enjoy the sounds of nature and explore your own backyard creek - perfect for relaxing or a little outdoor adventure. This property offers room to roam and plenty of potential. No traffic, just fresh air and country living.

18. 2025-06-30
    listed $220,000 New

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a calm, quiet place with charm on 1.68 acres. Enjoy the sounds of nature and explore your own backyard creek - perfect for relaxing or a little outdoor adventure. This property offers room to roam and plenty of potential. No traffic, just fresh air and country living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 1302250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,985
• Composite: 30.28/100
• National rank: #6281
• State rank: #61 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,625 people
• By 2030: 22,725 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 22,806 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 22,713 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 22,514 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.6% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+69.5 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.48%
• Current HPI: 350.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $210,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $213,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $215,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $217,500 GAMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $220,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $199,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $77 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.