1552 Chaparral Ln · Pelican Bay, TX 76020

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Land · 75 Days on market

Built 2026 9,017 sqft lot $152/sqft · 208% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and Enjoy the Lake and live in a New 2026 Champion Home with two decks. Split bedrooms, luxury vinyl floors throughout the home and large pantry, refrigerator included! Community has a public boat dock where residents can launch for free and a free public beach and park.

Key facts

• Public boat dock
• Free public beach
• Two decks

Tags

• TWO DECKS
• LARGE PANTRY
• PUBLIC BOAT DOCK
• FREE PUBLIC BEACH
• FREE PUBLIC PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#917 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 466 students, 64% FRL); Santo Forte J H (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 514 students, 55% FRL); Azle H S (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 2,054 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,628 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 208.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,258
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,427
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $276	-5% $224	+0% $171	+5% $119	+10% $67
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $108	+0% $171	+5% $235	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $218	base $171	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Mockingbird Ln Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,499	$1.38	22d	1	0.18mi
1329 Fox Hollow Ct Azle, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$900	$0.97	8d	1	0.42mi
1844 Sheila Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,645	$1.25	0d	1	0.83mi
1920 Reef Ct Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,449	$1.33	45d	1	0.96mi
700 Stribling Cir Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,659	$1.27	18d	1	1.14mi
11124 Liberty School Rd Unit 24B Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$999	$1.43	24d	1	1.18mi
11128 Liberty School Rd Unit 28A Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	26d	1	1.20mi
1324 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,650	$1.44	7d	1	1.20mi
1300 White Sand Dr Unit 1304 Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	45d	1	1.21mi
1408 Yachtclub Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	14d	1	1.23mi
1304 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	45d	1	1.25mi
424 Lochridge Dr Unit 424 Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,575	$1.33	14d	1	1.36mi
1002 N Stewart St Azle, TX	3.0	1.0	1119	$1,400	$1.25	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Come and Enjoy the Lake and live in a New 2026 Champion Home with two decks. Split bedrooms, luxury vinyl floors throughout the home and large pantry, refrigerator included! Community has a public boat dock where residents can launch for free and a free public beach and park.

2. 2026-02-16
   listed $185,000 Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Come and Enjoy the Lake and live in a New 2026 Champion Home with two decks. Split bedrooms, luxury vinyl floors throughout the home and large pantry, refrigerator included! Community has a public boat dock where residents can launch for free and a free public beach and park.

3. 1993-01-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,687/yr (+$224/mo · 384.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$258
• After-tax cash flow: $2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pelican Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #16376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pelican Bay, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 1993-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.