141 County Road 236 · Marlin, TX 76661

$67,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a beautiful new home! Its located in Bluebonnet Mobile home park in Marlin TX. 30 Minutes from Waco TX. Large private lots. The home is for sale with owner financing. 7k down $1,040 a month! Set a time to view asap. We only have 1 left.

Key facts

• 30 minutes from waco
• Large private lots
• Built 2025

Tags

• LARGE PRIVATE LOTS
• 30 MINUTES FROM WACO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($469 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $66,881 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.91%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $38,619
• Equity at exit: $35,105

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $95,780
• Equity at exit: $57,965

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $67,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $67,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$61/mo · 146.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $4,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$974
• After-tax cash flow: $3,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $67,900 FSBO.com