16781 Head St · Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$137,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1948 Est $136k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hazel Crest! this cozy two bedroom one bath ranch with one car detached garage is perfect as a starter home, or add it to your portfolio updates include fresh paint in 2026 new roof in 2024, new flooring in 2024 electric panel upgrade in 2025 furnace and water heater in 2019 enjoy quiet nights in the private fully fenced in backyard this home is waiting for your finishing touches and its new family this is an outstanding investment opportunity in a great location Make an appointment today

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• New roof

Tags

• FRESH PAINT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• ELECTRIC PANEL UPGRADE
• FURNACE AND WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Property is not currently leased; Property not rebuilt or rehabbed
• Financial info: Special service area: No; Tax exemptions: Homeowner, Senior, Senior Freeze
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space; 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan; Public sewer; 150 amp electric service
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Commuter bus and train access nearby
• Construction: Built approximately 71–80 years ago; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Curbs, sidewalks, street lights, paved streets; Lot less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (12 x 12) with wood laminate flooring; Second bedroom on main level (10 x 9) with wood laminate flooring; Additional bedrooms listed
• Flooring: Laminate / wood laminate flooring throughout main living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Five total rooms; Dining area combined with living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level (5 x 8); In-unit laundry with gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 8.9% in Hazel Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $137k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,670 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.91%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,120
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16777 Head Ave	0.01mi	2/1.0	830 (0%)	12mo	$150,000	$181	90
2222 170th St	0.27mi	2/1.0	864 (+4%)	9mo	$182,000	$211	74
16768 Bulger Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	954 (+15%)	4mo	$125,000	$131	67
16942 Winchester Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	874 (+5%)	10mo	$75,000	$86	67
1724 Charleston Ln	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	827 (-0%)	16mo	$146,000	$177	56
16973 Jodave Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (-4%)	9mo	$17,500	$22	55
17089 Trapet Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	760 (-8%)	18mo	$68,000	$89	53
17092 Jodave Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	728 (-12%)	13mo	$19,000	$26	42
16521 Wood St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+15%)	12mo	$170,000	$179	33
16455 Wolcott Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+13%)	23mo	$153,250	$164	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $46,813
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $129,565
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60429

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,084

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	1d	1	0.32mi
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	1d	1	0.34mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	1d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $137,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $137,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $137,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $137,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $137,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $137,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-02-10
   listed $137,000 Active
8. 2026-01-01
   historical
9. 2025-12-15
   status Active
10. 2025-12-09
    historical
11. 2025-09-02
    status Active
12. 2025-09-01
    historical
13. 2025-07-09
    price
14. 2025-07-08
    price
15. 2025-06-05
    price
16. 2025-05-10
    listed Active
17. 1999-09-16
    soldstatus $63,500
18. 1993-09-28
    soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,116/yr (+$93/mo · 127.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $11,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,745
• After-tax cash flow: $10,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hazel Crest

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Crest, IL
• City population: 14,602
• Population (ZIP): 14,602

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 282.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+201.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $137,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-10 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1993-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $877 · -79.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.