12258 Trailoaks Ct · Black Jack, MO 63033

$264,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1970 10,018 sqft lot Est $182k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Impeccably maintained and ready for immediate occupancy, this stunning 5-bedroom split-level home offers an exceptional, affordable opportunity with abundant finished square footage. The bright, inviting upper level features a spacious living area that flows effortlessly into the kitchen, complete with sleek stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a layout perfect for daily living or entertaining. Three generously sized bedrooms and a two full bathrooms complete this level. Downstairs, the fully finished lower level maximizes your living space with two additional versatile bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a massive recreation room—ideal for a home theater, gym, or playroom. Thi

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Off-street parking (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Multi/split stories
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard and back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (3 on the main level, 2 in the lower level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on the main level, 1 in the lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning with electric service; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Full basement; One fireplace located in the basement recreation room; Multi/split level layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,079 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	1,218 (+2%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	78
12178 El Camara Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$204,900	$179	64
6250 Pennyrich Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-1%)	2mo	$149,000	$126	64
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+6%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	60
12166 La Padera Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (-5%)	2mo	$200,000	$176	60
6363 Coventry Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-1%)	8mo	$168,000	$142	59
12113 La Padera Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$149,000	$130	59
12095 El Camara Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-9%)	0mo	$154,900	$142	58
11955 Red Barn Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	5mo	$169,900	$152	50
12705 Stubwood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,179 (-2%)	7mo	$265,000	$225	49
12136 La Padera Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$156	47
11922 La Padera Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (+14%)	8mo	$154,900	$113	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $140,142
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $445,323
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,808/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $228,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-133	+0% $-208	+5% $-283	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-284	+0% $-208	+5% $-132	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-141	base $-208	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	9d	1	0.99mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	1.14mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,364	$1.11	0d	18	1.20mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	1.21mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	1.24mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	0d	4	1.34mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $264,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,808
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$7,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,731
• After-tax cash flow: $-767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+164.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $264,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-12 Price Changed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-01 Price Changed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-07 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-17 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-12 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-27 Price Changed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-12 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,808 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.