50 Little Lake Rd · Jefferson, PA 18436

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1942 0.26 ac lot $134/sqft · 39% below area Est $294k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is very motivated. .. .bring reasonable offer. This charming raised ranch home located at Moosic Lakes is full of potential and just waiting for a little TLC to restore its full value. With three spacious bedrooms, including a large master, and the possibility of adding a second bathroom (plumbing is already in place), it offers plenty of room to grow. The 32 x 15 sq ft Trex decking on the deck and front porch adds outdoor living space, perfect for enjoying the tranquil views across the street from the little lake. Situated in a fantastic community with an HOA fee of $950 per year, residents also enjoy access to a peaceful, spring-fed lake, ideal for fishing or leisurely walks. The community offers a variety of activities for both children and adults, creating a welcoming and active environment. Public sewer is $95 per month, and the location is in the desirable North Pocono School District. Plus, with no motorized or electric boats allowed and no rentals (including STR or Airbnb), the area maintains a peaceful atmosphere, making it an ideal place to call home. An additional lot-19 X 150.. .. 1 car attached garage

Key facts

• Trex decking
• Spring fed lake
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• TREX DECKING
• SPRING FED LAKE
• NORTH POCONO SCHOOL DISTRICT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $180,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$293,655) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.1% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,242 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.12%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,655
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -38.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $133,171
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.23×
• Total profit: $364,630
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $195,000 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    Seller is very motivated. .. .bring reasonable offer. This charming raised ranch home located at Moosic Lakes is full of potential and just waiting for a little TLC to restore its full value. With three spacious bedrooms, including a large master, and the possibility of adding a second bathroom (plumbing is already in place), it offers plenty of room to grow. The 32 x 15 sq ft Trex decking on the deck and front porch adds outdoor living space, perfect for enjoying the tranquil views across the street from the little lake. Situated in a fantastic community with an HOA fee of $950 per year, residents also enjoy access to a peaceful, spring-fed lake, ideal for fishing or leisurely walks. The community offers a variety of activities for both children and adults, creating a welcoming and active environment. Public sewer is $95 per month, and the location is in the desirable North Pocono School District. Plus, with no motorized or electric boats allowed and no rentals (including STR or Airbnb), the area maintains a peaceful atmosphere, making it an ideal place to call home. An additional lot-19 X 150.. .. 1 car attached garage

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $219,900 Active 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    Seller is very motivated. .. .bring reasonable offer. This charming raised ranch home located at Moosic Lakes is full of potential and just waiting for a little TLC to restore its full value. With three spacious bedrooms, including a large master, and the possibility of adding a second bathroom (plumbing is already in place), it offers plenty of room to grow. The 32 x 15 sq ft Trex decking on the deck and front porch adds outdoor living space, perfect for enjoying the tranquil views across the street from the little lake. Situated in a fantastic community with an HOA fee of $950 per year, residents also enjoy access to a peaceful, spring-fed lake, ideal for fishing or leisurely walks. The community offers a variety of activities for both children and adults, creating a welcoming and active environment. Public sewer is $95 per month, and the location is in the desirable North Pocono School District. Plus, with no motorized or electric boats allowed and no rentals (including STR or Airbnb), the area maintains a peaceful atmosphere, making it an ideal place to call home. An additional lot-19 X 150.. .. 1 car attached garage

17. 2025-12-23
    historical
18. 2025-11-07
    listed $230,000 Active
19. 2025-10-11
    price $230,000
20. 2025-09-18
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus $165,000
22. 2016-06-21
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $3,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$957
• After-tax cash flow: $5,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1242
• US rank: #14897

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Cobb, PA
• City population: 152
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $195,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-23 Listed $219,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-23 Delisted — PMAR
• 2025-11-07 Listed $230,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $230,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-18 Listed $250,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+46.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $98,894 · +5165.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.