26250 Shadow Ln · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1950 0.36 ac lot $181/sqft · 41% above area Est $238k · 22% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. Everything in the home is new, including windows, appliances, and both interior and exterior finishes. Features an additional room upstairs offering extra space and flexibility. The property also includes a mobile home in the back in good condition, offering potential for rental income. Equipped with a water well and septic system that provides water and drainage. The lot is 15,499 sqft.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Water well
• Modern upgrades

Tags

• REMODELED
• MODERN UPGRADES
• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• WATER WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,449
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -22.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26232 Shadow Ln	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (-9%)	10mo	$34,000	$37	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,147
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,659
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,653/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Pending 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Pending 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Pending 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $185,000 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. Everything in the home is new, including windows, appliances, and both interior and exterior finishes. Features an additional room upstairs offering extra space and flexibility. The property also includes a mobile home in the back in good condition, offering potential for rental income. Equipped with a water well and septic system that provides water and drainage. The lot is 15,499 sqft.

15. 2026-03-17
    listed $200,000 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. Everything in the home is new, including windows, appliances, and both interior and exterior finishes. Features an additional room upstairs offering extra space and flexibility. The property also includes a mobile home in the back in good condition, offering potential for rental income. Equipped with a water well and septic system that provides water and drainage. The lot is 15,499 sqft.

16. 2025-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,653 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,732/yr (+$144/mo · 104.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,653
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$34
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,653 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.