8423 Water St · St. Louis, MO 63111

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1940 10,018 sqft lot $34/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors Dream!!! Incredible rare investment opportunity featuring 5-City Lots/across 2 adjacent parcels totaling nearly a quarter-acre (0.23) in the historic Carondelet Patch Neighborhood. This unique property offers endless possibilities, including 8423 Water St. , ready for renovations or possible tear-down, and 8429 Water St. provides additional lot space, creating excellent potential for future development, expansion, or long-term investment. The owner built the three-room addition, which includes a crawl space underneath the addition. The property includes 2 Stories, 2 beds, 1 bath boasting cathedral ceilings, arched entryways, unfinished walk-up lower-level access, and 2640 sq ft o

Key facts

• 5 city lots
• 2 adjacent parcels
• Crawl space

Tags

• 5 CITY LOTS
• 2 ADJACENT PARCELS
• THREE ROOM ADDITION
• CRAWL SPACE
• 2 STORIES
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: fixer; Ownership: private; Above-grade finished living area reported from public records; Lot dimensions approximately 76x144 and 51x144 (about 0.23 acres)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; 6-car garage (approximately 40x42, oversized); Additional parking and driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence, attached; Two levels
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Construction materials listed as unknown; Has basement (block, unfinished)
• Exterior features: Front yard and back yard; Natural foliage; Porch; Chain link fence in back yard; Panel and storm doors; Metal outbuilding/metal building; Walk-up basement access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Window air unit(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Coffered ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on the main level; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woerner Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 362 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,486
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -50.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7617 Ivory Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,826 (+7%)	3mo	$95,000	$34	46
402 Schirmer St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (-3%)	17mo	$375,000	$146	44
7327 Pennsylvania Ave	0.73mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,546 (-4%)	16mo	$149,900	$59	32
7415 Michigan Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,352 (-11%)	23mo	$179,900	$76	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,371
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $24,712
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $89,900 Active 1314-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$430
• After-tax cash flow: $2,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,023 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.