56 South Dr · Lake Katrine, NY 12477

$124,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1945 0.41 ac lot Est $130k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Saugerties! Situated on a 0.41-acre lot, 56 South Drive is a 1-bedroom, 1-bath seasonal cottage offering 582 square feet of potential. This property is ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a renovation project in the desirable Hudson Valley. Bring your vision and creativity to restore or reimagine this cottage into a weekend retreat or income-producing property. Located just minutes from local shops, restaurants, and outdoor attractions, this property offers a great location with strong upside potential.

Key facts

• Seasonal cottage
• 0.41-acre lot
• Great location

Tags

• 0.41-ACRE LOT
• SEASONAL COTTAGE
• RENOVATION PROJECT
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces); Basement present (crawl space)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling; No standard heating listed (other/unspecified)
• Interior features: Porch; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#500 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: E R Crosby Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 303 students, 61% FRL); M Clifford Miller Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 822 students, 65% FRL); Kingston High School (math 94% / reading 91%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,856 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 45% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $125k implies a 1150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,749 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,368
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 North Dr	0.55mi	1/1.0	604 (+4%)	22mo	$135,000	$224	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,321
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $29,133
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,799/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $373	+0% $338	+5% $302	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $274	+0% $338	+5% $402	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $369	base $338	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
384 Glenerie Blvd Saugerties, NY	2.0	1.0	400	$1,250	$3.12	44d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,999 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,999 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,999 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,999 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,999 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,999 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,999 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,999 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,999 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,999 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,999 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,999 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,999 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,999 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,999 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $124,999 Active
17. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 1978-09-15
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,799 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,799 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,799
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616290
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $52,586
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2849
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Katrine

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #8753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• City population: 2,916
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+792.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $124,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1978-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,799 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.