3627 NE 9th Ave · Portland, OR 97212

$500,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1913 5,227 sqft lot Est $618k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1913
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($490/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sabin Elementary School (312 students, 25% FRL); Harriet Tubman Middle School (360 students, 65% FRL); Jefferson High School (606 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $386,613 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3626 NE 8th Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (+2%)	7mo	$599,900	$331	83
4037 NE 8th Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (+9%)	3mo	$695,000	$356	64
4113 NE 8th Ave	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,890 (+6%)	6mo	$565,000	$299	61
4044 NE 6th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (+10%)	3mo	$430,000	$218	60
4037 NE Garfield Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,992 (+12%)	3mo	$600,000	$301	59
4017 NE 15th Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,940 (+9%)	5mo	$507,000	$261	57
1406 NE Failing St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-14%)	0mo	$590,000	$384	57
2722 NE 9th Ave	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,622 (-9%)	3mo	$850,000	$524	49
78 NE Ivy St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+12%)	7mo	$539,000	$270	49
4615 NE Rodney Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-4%)	9mo	$600,000	$349	49
4406 NE 14th Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	2mo	$705,000	$346	46
2437 NE 10th Ave	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,007 (+12%)	6mo	$787,000	$392	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-76,720
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-56,388
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Portland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+39

Mandatory relocation for no-cause evictions; rent increase notice 90 days.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97212

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,814

Max offer price $500,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3938 NE 6th Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,395	$1.53	4d	1	0.20mi
317 NE Beech St Unit 1309851P Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	1453	$6,108	$4.20	15d	1	0.25mi
315-317 NE Beech St Unit 1309843P Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	1453	$6,040	$4.16	2d	1	0.26mi
4412 NE Grand Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.5	1376	$3,095	$2.25	11d	1	0.46mi
2605 NE 9th Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	2537	$3,435	$1.35	24d	1	0.53mi
4622 NE Garfield Ave Unit 1309897P Portland, OR	4.0	3.0	2497	$13,231	$5.30	44d	1	0.60mi
4413 N Vancouver Ave Portland, OR	3.0	3.5	1633	$2,995	$1.83	22d	2	0.69mi
140 NE Sacramento St Portland, OR	3.0–5.0	3.5–5.0	2223	$3,950	$1.78	20d	2	0.71mi
5177 NE 14th Pl Unit 1271934P Portland, OR	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1764	$11,904	$6.75	10d	2	0.83mi
4313 N Kerby Ave Portland, OR	5.0	2.5	2000	$3,950	$1.98	44d	1	0.86mi
4980 N Vancouver Ave Unit 1309893P Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	1313	$7,883	$6.00	20d	1	0.87mi
5040 NE 18th Ave Unit 1309833P Portland, OR	3.0	1.5	1248	$7,242	$5.80	8d	1	0.89mi
4124 N Mississippi Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,000	$3.08	11d	1	0.95mi
1820 NE Killingsworth St Unit 1824 Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,995	$2.07	44d	1	1.07mi
5530 N Haight Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,595	$1.76	44d	1	1.16mi
1235 N Prescott St Unit 1309834P Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	1991	$9,061	$4.55	22d	1	1.19mi
5016 NE 29th Ave Unit 1309850P Portland, OR	4.0	1.0	2325	$7,622	$3.28	2d	1	1.26mi
5032 N Montana Ave Unit A Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,900	$1.70	44d	1	1.33mi
6227 NE 15th Ave Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	2033	$3,150	$1.55	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-03
   status Active
3. 2025-09-23
   listed $500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,653/yr (+$221/mo · 120.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,711
• − Management: −$3,711
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $2,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portland SD 1J
• NCES district ID: 4110040
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,851
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #5112
• State rank: #23 of 183 in OR

Livability — Portland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #3256

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portland, OR
• County: Multnomah County · 786,692 people
• City population: 774,334
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $131,932
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 930,825 people
• By 2030: 996,904 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,121,379 · +20.5%
• By 2050: 1,242,124 · +33.4%
• By 2075: 1,464,431 · +57.3%
• By 2100: 1,576,181 · +69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1048.78%
• Current HPI: 312.3989
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $500,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.