1821 N State Highway 19 · Emory, TX 75440

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1940 10,716 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

There’s something comforting about an older home with a story to tell. Just north of Emory, about five minutes from town, this East Texas home sits beneath mature shade trees and offers the kind of character that only comes with time. Covered front porch, privacy fenced backyard and plenty of room to enjoy a slower pace, relax. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, solid surface flooring throughout, galley style kitchen with upgraded stainless steel sink plus smooth top range. Nicely updated generously sized Bathroom with stand up shower, and bonus linen storage. large utility room with built in cabinets and a bit of extra space. Metal roof and windows were installed 6 years ago, the home has natural g

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Smooth top range
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• UPGRADED STAINLESS STEEL SINK
• SMOOTH TOP RANGE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.246 acre); Easements: Other; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing accepts cash and conventional offers; No second mortgage on record
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Natural gas available; Individual gas meter; Co-op electric; Electricity connected; Asphalt access; Located outside city limits
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Property is attached
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1940
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood privacy fence in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 9 x 14); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 15 x 9)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating (gas jets); Electric cooling with wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; One living area; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Utility room on level 1 (approx. 7 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.2% in Emory — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#529 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rains El (437 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.32%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,153
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $21,437
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75440

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $332	+0% $294	+5% $255	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $232	+0% $294	+5% $355	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $328	base $294	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $135,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rains ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,836
• Composite: 22.46/100
• National rank: #8106
• State rank: #697 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emory

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #10352

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,480

Population outlook (Rains County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,516 people
• By 2030: 11,610 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 11,622 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,329 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 10,390 · -9.8%
• By 2100: 8,809 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rains

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.9) · D 13.3% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.5pp · 2024: -72.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.9 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+61.8 2008: R+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.08%
• Current HPI: 208.6245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $135,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,092 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.