4945 Winecup Cv · San Antonio, TX 78109

$172,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $176k · at est. $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $173k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $162,619 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,602
• List price: $172,999
• Delta: -1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4961 Winecup Cv	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$199,999	$130	98
4953 Winecup Cv	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$200,999	$131	98
11930 Spiderwort Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$172,999	$113	96
11922 Spiderwort Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$177,999	$116	96
11906 Spiderwort Rdg	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$171,999	$112	96
11946 Spiderwort Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$177,999	$116	96
11914 Spiderwort Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	2mo	$186,999	$122	95
4949 Winecup Cv	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$160,999	$118	75
4957 Winecup Cv	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	0mo	$160,999	$118	75
4965 Winecup Cv	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$163,999	$121	74
4902 Winecup Cv	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$186,999	$137	72
11926 Spiderwort Rdg	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$175,999	$129	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,008
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,890
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $172,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $237	+0% $177	+5% $117	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $105	+0% $177	+5% $248	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $221	base $177	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4906 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,350	$1.14	25d	1	0.02mi
11938 Spiderwort Rdg Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,600	$1.35	5d	1	0.07mi
12003 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,550	$1.30	44d	1	0.13mi
4522 Meerkat Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,750	$1.18	12d	1	0.56mi
4550 Meerkat Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2041	$1,950	$0.96	17d	1	0.57mi
4918 Valenzuela Converse, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1719	$2,144	$1.25	2d	82	0.73mi
11038 Airmen Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2096	$2,250	$1.07	5d	1	1.14mi
4250 Admirals Bnd Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	25d	1	1.24mi
10906 Airmen Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,550	$1.01	4d	1	1.26mi
13112 Candace Way Saint Hedwig, TX	4.0	2.5	1903	$1,750	$0.92	5d	1	1.29mi
4303 Brigade Bnd Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,200	$1.01	44d	1	1.29mi
13015 Red Elks Lks Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	1.29mi
12811 Sage Turn Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	1914	$1,800	$0.94	25d	1	1.29mi
13117 Candace Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1903	$1,800	$0.95	5d	1	1.29mi
13038 Candace Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,675	$0.99	5d	1	1.30mi
5424 Thyme Cor Saint Hedwig, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,450	$0.87	21d	1	1.31mi
4211 Asher Aly Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,438	$1.15	4d	1	1.31mi
10922 Lockheed Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2179	$1,995	$0.92	17d	1	1.32mi
11151 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1859	$1,705	$0.92	25d	1	1.32mi
3937 Abbott Pass Unit 102 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,495	$1.11	44d	1	1.34mi
12922 Sage Turn Saint Hedwig, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,597	$0.96	25d	1	1.34mi
4150 Admirals Bnd Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,750	$1.09	5d	1	1.35mi
3933 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	25d	1	1.35mi
3936 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	23d	1	1.35mi
10827 Fox Trot Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,645	$1.00	21d	1	1.35mi
13014 Candace Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,675	$1.08	5d	1	1.35mi
3932 Abbott Pass Unit 102 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,495	$1.11	25d	1	1.36mi
3925 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	44d	1	1.36mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.37mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1709	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	1.37mi
3921 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,595	$1.19	12d	1	1.37mi
10818 Fox Trot Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.38mi
13015 Kathleen St Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,540	$1.25	25d	1	1.40mi
13015 Kathleen St Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,540	$1.25	23d	1	1.40mi
4241 Fort Palmer Blvd Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,880	$1.01	3d	1	1.41mi
3923 Ivy Path Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,600	$1.11	25d	1	1.43mi
13019 Lineberry Ln Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$1,638	$0.97	16d	1	1.44mi
12932 Lake Fryer Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,200	$0.98	4d	1	1.45mi
13039 Heathers Sun Saint Hedwig, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,895	$0.86	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $172,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,999 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,999 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,999 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,999 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,999 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,999 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,999 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $172,999 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $199,999 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

16. 2026-05-09
    price $199,999 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $201,999 New 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable loss: −$630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a desirable open floorplan. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $199,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $199,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Listed $201,999 LERA