308 Gilbert Ter · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$127,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1952 7,841 sqft lot Est $170k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Harlem School District! 3 Bedroom ranch in the heart of Machensey Park. Close to school and shopping. Large tandem 4 car garage with workshop provides ample storage. Rear deck and great sized yard. First floor laundry hookups. Large kitchen. Bring your decorating ideas and make this home yours.

Key facts

• Attached workshop
• Large yard
• Single-level layout

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• OVERSIZED 2-CAR GARAGE
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Residential property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Machesney Elem School (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,116 of 2,056 statewide, top 55%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $128k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.67%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,052
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Gilbert Ter	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,149 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$117	99
128 Wilson Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+1%)	0mo	$166,000	$143	75
216 Superior Ave	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (+1%)	4mo	$115,000	$99	74
506 Marquette Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+5%)	1mo	$197,500	$164	74
530 Wilshire Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	3mo	$192,000	$185	68
432 Winona Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	8mo	$142,410	$137	66
7637 Rogers St	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,143 (-0%)	2mo	$205,000	$179	65
7532 Sommerville St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,112 (-3%)	8mo	$165,000	$148	63
7819 Shore Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-9%)	8mo	$165,000	$157	60
7643 Rogers St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,281 (+12%)	2mo	$195,815	$153	53
114 Marquette Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	8mo	$75,000	$75	52
35 Liberty Blvd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-11%)	8mo	$115,100	$112	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,254
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $37,998
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $443	+0% $407	+5% $370	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $343	+0% $407	+5% $471	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $439	base $407	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	14d	1	0.92mi
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	21d	1	1.10mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	14d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-30
   remarks 561-char remark
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $127,500 Active
3. 2020-01-22
   soldstatus $65,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Harlem School District! 3 Bedroom ranch in the heart of Machensey Park. Close to school and shopping. Large tandem 4 car garage with workshop provides ample storage. Rear deck and great sized yard. First floor laundry hookups. Large kitchen. Bring your decorating ideas and make this home yours.

4. 2019-11-14
   listed $68,900 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Harlem School District! 3 Bedroom ranch in the heart of Machensey Park. Close to school and shopping. Large tandem 4 car garage with workshop provides ample storage. Rear deck and great sized yard. First floor laundry hookups. Large kitchen. Bring your decorating ideas and make this home yours.

5. 2019-01-08
   historical
6. 2018-12-20
   listed New
7. 2015-11-25
   historical
8. 2015-09-09
   listed New
9. 2003-09-29
   soldstatus $64,000
10. 1998-04-28
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,353 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$541/yr (+$45/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $3,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$726
• After-tax cash flow: $4,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $127,500 NWIAR
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWIAR
• 2019-11-14 Listed $68,900 NWIAR
• 2019-01-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-20 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-09 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,812 · -17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.