1212 Clear Pond Rd · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$464,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1982 0.29 ac lot $268/sqft · 9% below area Est $510k · 9% under $88/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now is your chance to love and enjoy this Lake Naomi home and the renowned lifestyle Lake Naomi Club offers year-round. An appealing contemporary design highlighting an open great room along with an adjacent family room nicely accommodating all. Cathedral ceilings and a stone woodburning fireplace add mountain style. Blended dining with convenient pass through to kitchen. Preferred 1st floor primary bedroom, 2 baths, 2 inviting 2nd floor bedrooms and a versatile loft overlooking living. Generous closet storage, garage and ample parking too. Pleasant decking to dine and relax. In addition, it's prime location to the lake, beaches, pool and tennis complex make 1212 Clear Pond a must see.

Key facts

• Open great room
• Versatile loft
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• STONE WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• PASS THROUGH TO KITCHEN
• 1ST FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• GENEROUS CLOSET STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $380,000 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,609
• List price: $464,900
• Delta: -8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1161 Deer Run	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	6mo	$505,000	$287	88
221 Little Pond Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-6%)	6mo	$515,000	$317	80
4147 Hemlock Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+3%)	9mo	$455,000	$255	72
136 Split Rock Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+4%)	5mo	$457,500	$254	56
5505 Cornflower Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+1%)	3mo	$406,500	$232	55
5581 Woodland Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-12%)	4mo	$465,000	$306	55
172 Cumberland Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-6%)	2mo	$554,000	$339	55
312 Foxglove Pl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,633 (-6%)	1mo	$499,900	$306	54
4202 Hemlock Trl	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+9%)	1mo	$590,000	$312	52
5541 Fox Run Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-14%)	9mo	$385,000	$259	50
196 Split Rock Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-13%)	5mo	$549,000	$364	40
231 Gross Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-14%)	7mo	$325,000	$218	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-95,729
• Equity at exit: $69,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-109,271
• Equity at exit: $40,196

Cash invested: $130,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax from tax record: −$604 /mo · $7,254/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,208

Max offer price $407,983

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-191	+0% $-322	+5% $-454	+10% $-585
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-472	+0% $-322	+5% $-172	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-204	base $-322	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,225
• Closing costs: $13,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2236 Hillcrest Dr Pocono Pines, PA	3.0	2.5	2068	$3,800	$1.84	45d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $464,900 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $464,900 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $464,900 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $464,900 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $464,900 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $464,900 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,900 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $464,900 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $464,900 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $464,900 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $484,900 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $484,900 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $484,900 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $484,900 Active 278 DOM
15. 2025-08-25
    listed $484,900 Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Now is your chance to love and enjoy this Lake Naomi home and the renowned lifestyle Lake Naomi Club offers year-round. An appealing contemporary design highlighting an open great room along with an adjacent family room nicely accommodating all. Cathedral ceilings and a stone woodburning fireplace add mountain style. Blended dining with convenient pass through to kitchen. Preferred 1st floor primary bedroom, 2 baths, 2 inviting 2nd floor bedrooms and a versatile loft overlooking living. Generous closet storage, garage and ample parking too. Pleasant decking to dine and relax. In addition, it's prime location to the lake, beaches, pool and tennis complex make 1212 Clear Pond a must see.

16. 2010-07-20
    listed $279,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,254 · $604/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,300 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,042
• − Property taxes: −$7,254
• − Insurance: −$2,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,648
• − Management: −$3,648
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$13,524
• Taxable loss: −$11,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+73.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $484,900 PMAR
• 2010-07-20 Listed $279,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,254 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.