16401 Janan Dr · Whitehouse, TX 75707

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, landlords, and handy buyers! This double-wide mobile home at 16401 Janan Dr offers incredible potential in the desirable Chapel Hill area, just minutes from beautiful Lake Tyler. Sitting on over half an acre, the property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with plenty of room to make it your own. The home was tenant-occupied until about 4 months ago, so it was previously livable, but it will need repairs and updates. Whether you’re looking for your next investment property, rental opportunity, or a project where you can build sweat equity, this property has upside potential written all over it. Enjoy the spacious lot, convenient location, and opportunity to tra

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Investment property
• Spacious lot

Tags

• OVER HALF AN ACRE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• RENTAL OPPORTUNITY
• UPSIDE POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax listed (not included in features)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with space for 1 car
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story manufactured (mobile) home; Residential property in the QUIET BAY subdivision
• Construction: Manufactured (mobile) home construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; No listed heating
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Home warranty included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arp El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 473 students, 60% FRL); Arp J H (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 219 students, 62% FRL); Arp H S (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 293 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $80k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.22%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $60,766
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $144,103
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75707

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $717

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,201	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,156	+10% $1,133
Rent	-10% $1,004	-5% $1,091	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,266	+10% $1,353
Rate	-1.0pp $1,219	-0.5pp $1,199	base $1,179	+0.5pp $1,158	+1.0pp $1,137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16640 Quiet Bay Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1848	$2,495	$1.35	45d	1	0.32mi
16640 Quiet Bay Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1848	$2,350	$1.27	14d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $79,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $84,900 Active
19. 2025-08-13
    soldstatus $29,000
20. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $13,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,287
• After-tax cash flow: $10,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808730
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,075
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5165
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitehouse

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 15,786
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,532
• Household income: $84,954
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 196.577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+192.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $84,900 GTAR
• 2025-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,366 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.