129 Eagle Ridge Dr · Waxahachie, TX 75165

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2001 0.84 ac lot Est $262k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living at its best while still being near all amenities. Home has bonus room off master, two living areas and plenty of space to expand. Owner has replaced the roof and HVAC, painted exterior and installed covered parking, all within the last two years.

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• Hvac
• Bonus room

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.3% in Waxahachie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Oak El (math 42% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 528 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 854 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.30%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,744
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Robin Ridge Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+14%)	11mo	$240,000	$99	56
130 Falcon Ridge Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+14%)	22mo	$300,000	$123	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $30,489
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $102,090
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 854
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2360 Murphy Ct Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	19d	1	0.46mi
2385 Murphy Ct Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	1d	1	0.50mi
2393 Murphy Ct Waxahachie, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	1d	1	0.50mi
2270 Pitchfork Ranch Rd Waxahachie, TX	4.0	2.0	2575	$3,450	$1.34	1d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-07-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-02
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2016-02-29
   soldstatus
4. 2016-02-26
   soldstatus Sold 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Enjoy country living at its best while still being near all amenities. Home has bonus room off master, two living areas and plenty of space to expand. Owner has replaced the roof and HVAC, painted exterior and installed covered parking, all within the last two years.

5. 2016-01-13
   status Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Enjoy country living at its best while still being near all amenities. Home has bonus room off master, two living areas and plenty of space to expand. Owner has replaced the roof and HVAC, painted exterior and installed covered parking, all within the last two years.

6. 2015-12-31
   historical Active Option Contract 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Enjoy country living at its best while still being near all amenities. Home has bonus room off master, two living areas and plenty of space to expand. Owner has replaced the roof and HVAC, painted exterior and installed covered parking, all within the last two years.

7. 2015-11-12
   listed $99,900 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Enjoy country living at its best while still being near all amenities. Home has bonus room off master, two living areas and plenty of space to expand. Owner has replaced the roof and HVAC, painted exterior and installed covered parking, all within the last two years.

8. 2013-08-30
   soldstatus Closed 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath family home with two living area. Extra room located off the master could be used as a sitting area for the master, nursery room or even home office. Kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter tops and breakfast bar. Property located outside of the city limits, enjoy country living with quick easy access to shopping, schools and highway access.

9. 2013-08-20
   status Pending 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath family home with two living area. Extra room located off the master could be used as a sitting area for the master, nursery room or even home office. Kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter tops and breakfast bar. Property located outside of the city limits, enjoy country living with quick easy access to shopping, schools and highway access.

10. 2013-08-05
    listed $45,000 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath family home with two living area. Extra room located off the master could be used as a sitting area for the master, nursery room or even home office. Kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter tops and breakfast bar. Property located outside of the city limits, enjoy country living with quick easy access to shopping, schools and highway access.

11. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$856/yr (+$71/mo · 41.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,009
• After-tax cash flow: $8,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1365.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+255.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-01-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-12-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-11-12 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-08-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-08-05 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,072 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.