8376 W Pine Grove Beach Dr · Baldwin, MI 49304

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 317 Days on market

Built 1955 5,227 sqft lot $166/sqft · 26% below area Est $193k · 48% under $3/mo HOA ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Room for a barn
• Views of the lake
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• HOA ACCESS TO BIG START LAKE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ROOM FOR A BARN
• VIEWS OF THE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($435/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,803 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,541
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -48.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-13,921
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-9,319
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $403/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-17
   price $134,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

2. 2026-03-17
   price $134,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

3. 2026-03-17
   price $134,900

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

4. 2025-10-22
   price $159,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

5. 2025-10-21
   price $159,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

6. 2025-10-21
   price $159,900

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

7. 2025-08-07
   price $185,000 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

8. 2025-08-07
   price $185,000 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

9. 2025-08-07
   price $185,000

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

10. 2025-07-14
    listed $199,900 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

11. 2025-07-14
    listed $199,900 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

12. 2025-07-14
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Super sharp 2 bedroom (plus small loft for kids) 1 bath cottage with HOA access to Big Start Lake just a short golf cart ride away. Perfect for a little weekend getaway, wood burning fireplace, room for a barn per township. Gorgeous views of the lake without the hefty price tag BSL typically brings. Call today for a showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $403 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 141.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$403
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$776
• − Management: −$776
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$311
• After-tax cash flow: $746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #9207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-32.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $134,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $159,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $185,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $185,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $185,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-14 Listed $199,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $403 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.