2946 Melrose Rd · Helena Valley Southeast, MT 59602

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1974 Poor condition Est $87k · 9% under $525/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remarks: Adorable 1974 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Metal roof, all furniture included, fenced in yard, side deck, front porch, awesome patio area, 2 sheds. Small pets allowed. Located in leisure village lot rent includes water and garbage.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Community pool
• Front porch

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• METAL ROOF
• FRONT PORCH
• AWESOME PATIO AREA
• 2 SHEDS
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax: $322.55
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee of $525 covering sewer, trash, water, and snow removal; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, basketball court, park, playground, and landscaping

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Has heating (Forced Air)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Helena Valley Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#160 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Helena H S (town): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #42 of 116 in MT (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.00%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2931 Melrose Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	8mo	$110,000	$119	85
2877 Melody Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	938 (-3%)	1mo	$72,000	$77	84
2968 Sunnyside Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	994 (+3%)	10mo	$89,000	$90	82
2924 Sunnyside Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	3mo	$139,900	$135	80
2969 Sunnyside Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (-3%)	2mo	$65,000	$69	79
2873 Village Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+10%)	2mo	$77,000	$72	72
2960 Bishop Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	19mo	$250,000	$271	71
2930 Sunrise Rd	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	13mo	$84,000	$91	71
2844 Village Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	20mo	$99,900	$108	60
3375 Wylie Dr #2	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-4%)	2mo	$40,000	$43	57
3375 Wylie Dr #50	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-1%)	15mo	$19,500	$20	49
3375 Wylie Dr #4	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-13%)	7mo	$35,000	$42	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $8,675
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $36,179
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59602

• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $359	+0% $332	+5% $304	+10% $277
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $262	+0% $332	+5% $402	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $352	base $332	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $79,000 Active
20. 2021-08-26
    soldstatus 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Remarks: Adorable 1974 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Metal roof, all furniture included, fenced in yard, side deck, front porch, awesome patio area, 2 sheds. Small pets allowed. Located in leisure village lot rent includes water and garbage.

21. 2021-06-04
    listed $34,900 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Remarks: Adorable 1974 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Metal roof, all furniture included, fenced in yard, side deck, front porch, awesome patio area, 2 sheds. Small pets allowed. Located in leisure village lot rent includes water and garbage.

22. 2018-05-03
    soldstatus 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remarks: Cute little place for a great price! Great opportunity to own your own home!

23. 2018-03-26
    listed $27,900 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remarks: Cute little place for a great price! Great opportunity to own your own home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$791
• After-tax cash flow: $3,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior paint, and siding repair, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major roof — Appears aged and possibly rusted
• Major paint — Chipped and peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior paint job — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and value
• Both roof replacement — A new roof is essential for structural integrity and can boost value
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Appears aged and possibly rusted	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Chipped and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior paint job — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof replacement — A new roof is essential for structural integrity and can boost value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Helena H S
• NCES district ID: 3013830
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,565
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #4238
• State rank: #42 of 116 in MT

Livability — Helena Valley Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #15212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Helena Valley Southeast, MT
• County: Lewis and Clark County · 62,482 people
• Metro: Helena, MT
• Population (ZIP): 30,754
• Household income: $92,985
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Lewis and Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,720 people
• By 2030: 75,403 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 79,496 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 82,741 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 90,296 · +24.2%
• By 2100: 93,425 · +28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis and Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 45.4% · R 51.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.02%
• Current HPI: 243.543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Helena, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+183.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $79,000 MRMLS
• 2021-08-26 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2021-06-04 Listed $34,900 MRMLS
• 2018-05-03 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2018-03-26 Listed $27,900 MRMLS