Cibola Plan · San Antonio, TX 78264

$171,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 170 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $174,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan (Cibola); Single-family property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model home (Cibola plan); 1,535 living area

🏗️ New construction. The $171,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $168,850.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-764/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage El (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 485 students, 90% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $139,647 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,850
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20572 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$159,999	$104	93
20536 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$159,999	$104	93
20560 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	2mo	$159,999	$104	93
20622 Andalusite Way	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	2mo	$179,999	$117	92
2722 Jasper Stone	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	0mo	$150,999	$101	84
2702 Jasper Stone	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	2mo	$166,999	$111	82
2878 Red Diamond	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+10%)	1mo	$185,999	$110	76
20626 Andalusite Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	0mo	$146,999	$108	68
2745 Morganite Ring	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$177,999	$127	68
2717 Morganite Ring	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$177,999	$126	68
2721 Morganite Ring	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$181,999	$130	67
2706 Jasper Stone	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-10%)	1mo	$141,999	$103	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $24,903
• Equity at exit: $85,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $84,185
• Equity at exit: $138,706

Cash invested: $47,278 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$885
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,533/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $159,636

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-5	+0% $-64	+5% $-122	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-119	+0% $-64	+5% $-9	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-21	base $-64	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,212
• Closing costs: $5,066
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	0.04mi
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	4d	1	0.04mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	26d	1	0.05mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	26d	1	0.08mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	45d	1	0.11mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	18d	1	0.11mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	0d	1	0.11mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	6d	1	0.12mi
20622 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,400	$0.91	0d	1	0.12mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	24d	1	0.13mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	19d	1	0.14mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	26d	1	0.15mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	45d	1	0.49mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	26d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	4d	1	0.52mi
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.02mi
20414 Deets Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,750	$0.94	5d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $171,999 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,999 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,999 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,999 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,999 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,999 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,999 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $171,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,999 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $172,999 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,999 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $172,999 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,533
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$4,912
• Taxable loss: −$3,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B