Priscilla Plan · Odessa, TX 79765

$188,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily · 391 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Garage
• Listed 390 days

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SECLUDED MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,276 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.89%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,485
• Equity at exit: $28,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,835
• Equity at exit: $16,337

Cash invested: $52,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $188,950

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,238
• Closing costs: $5,668
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10306 Sheriff St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,050	$1.65	13d	1	0.20mi
10310 Creek St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	13d	1	0.25mi
401 Farmstead Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	44d	1	0.32mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	21d	1	0.54mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	44d	1	0.80mi
9100 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	645	$1,259	$1.95	13d	5	0.89mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	21d	1	1.12mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	44d	1	1.16mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $188,950 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,950 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,950 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,950 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,950 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,950 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,950 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,950 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,950 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,950 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,950 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,950 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,950 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,950 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $188,950 Active 371 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $188,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

17. 2025-05-24
    listed $182,950 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,584
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$5,497
• Taxable income: $1,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern finishes and features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and vinyl siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and vinyl siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $188,950 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $182,950 Zillow