Adam Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$489,995

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Covered porch entry
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PORCH ENTRY
• BRIGHT CASUAL DINING AREA
• SOARING TWO-STORY GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $489,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $523,563.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $490k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $397k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,543 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $523,563
• List price: $489,995
• Delta: -6.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2010 Big Creek Way	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,124 (+1%)	2mo	$649,000	$208	84
1631 Delta Oaks Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	3,079 (-1%)	2mo	$620,000	$201	80
1623 Delta Oaks Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	3,134 (+1%)	2mo	$689,900	$220	79
1823 Camille Park Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	3,280 (+6%)	3mo	$495,000	$151	69
1623 Summer Pine Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,050 (-2%)	1mo	$575,990	$189	64
1907 Creekwood Cv	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,935 (-5%)	3mo	$518,888	$177	62
9426 Orchard Trl	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,752 (-11%)	1mo	$516,888	$188	60
2607 River Run Rd	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,853 (-8%)	1mo	$399,900	$140	56
2023 Pembrook Pl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,640 (-15%)	2mo	$650,000	$246	50
2527 Ormond Run	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,682 (-13%)	2mo	$399,800	$149	45
2030 Edgemont Pl	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,736 (-12%)	3mo	$435,000	$159	45
1351 Creek Haven Dr	0.72mi	4/4.5	3,520 (+14%)	2mo	$730,000	$207	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-120,714
• Equity at exit: $109,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-188,759
• Equity at exit: $101,707

Cash invested: $146,598 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 256 active · 96 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $582,450 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$654 /mo · $7,853/yr
• Insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$730
• Net cashflow: $-873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,580

Max offer price $397,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-511	-5% $-692	+0% $-873	+5% $-1,054	+10% $-1,234
Rent	-10% $-1,147	-5% $-1,010	+0% $-873	+5% $-735	+10% $-598
Rate	-1.0pp $-609	-0.5pp $-739	base $-873	+0.5pp $-1,008	+1.0pp $-1,146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,891
• Closing costs: $15,707
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	119d	1	0.60mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	92d	1	0.63mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	69d	1	0.69mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	10d	1	0.69mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	143d	1	0.71mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	127d	1	0.96mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	1.02mi
11030 Valley Fort Dr Unit Labs Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$3,120	$1.36	7d	1	1.18mi
10426 Caribou Cv Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2488	$2,450	$0.98	69d	1	1.34mi
2918 Five Oaks Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,350	$0.95	119d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Missouri City, TX 77459
• Financial info: List price $512,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan home (Adam)Listed as single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,098 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Adam)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-built home)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $489,995 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $489,995 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $489,995 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $489,995 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $489,995 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $489,995 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $489,995 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $489,995 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $489,995 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $489,995 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $489,995 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $489,995 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $489,995 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $489,995 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $489,995 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $489,995 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $489,995 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $489,995 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $489,995 Active 172 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $489,995 Active 171 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $489,995 Active 170 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $489,995 Active 169 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $489,995 Active 168 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $489,995 Active 167 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $489,995 Active 166 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $489,995 Active 165 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $489,995 Active 164 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $489,995 Active 163 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $489,995 Active 162 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $489,995 Active 161 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $489,995 Active 160 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $489,995 Active 159 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $489,995 Active 158 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $489,995 Active 157 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $489,995 Active 156 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $489,995 Active 155 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $489,995 Active 154 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $489,995 Active 153 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $489,995 Active 152 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $489,995 Active 151 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $489,995 Active 150 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $489,995 Active 149 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $489,995 Active 148 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $489,995 Active 147 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $489,995 Active 146 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $489,995 Active 145 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $489,995 Active 144 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $489,995 Active 143 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $489,995 Active 142 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $489,995 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,328
• − Property taxes: −$7,853
• − Insurance: −$2,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,336
• − Management: −$3,336
• − Depreciation: −$15,231
• Taxable loss: −$19,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,799
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a high ROI with updates that can further enhance its appeal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Missouri City, TX 77459
• Financial info: List price $512,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan home (Adam)Listed as single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,098 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Adam)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-built home)