Adam Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$512,995

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern deluxe touches. The Adam's inviting covered porch entry and welcoming foyer with tray ceiling offer views to the bright casual dining area, soaring two-story great room, and desirable covered patio beyond. The well-designed gourmet kitchen is enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and sizable walk-in pantry. The serene primary bedroom suite is highlighted by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower, and private water closet.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Covered porch entry
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PORCH ENTRY
• BRIGHT CASUAL DINING AREA
• SOARING TWO-STORY GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $512,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $529,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $513k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $464k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $406k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($467k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $406,016 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,622
• List price: $512,995
• Delta: -3.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10107 Deerpark Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	3,273 (+6%)	0mo	$500,000	$153	84
10602 Harvest Oak Ct	0.44mi	4/3.0	3,097 (-0%)	2mo	$575,000	$186	76
10039 Cypress Path	0.37mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+8%)	2mo	$585,000	$175	68
10618 Emory Park	0.52mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,231 (+4%)	0mo	$425,000	$132	64
1310 Timber Shores Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	3,101 (+0%)	1mo	$599,900	$193	63
1807 Watermont Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,078 (-1%)	2mo	$535,000	$174	61
10018 Foggy Riv	0.53mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (-5%)	2mo	$449,999	$153	60
10019 Cypress Path	0.36mi	4/3.5	3,518 (+14%)	1mo	$625,000	$178	60
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.70mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+3%)	2mo	$605,000	$190	59
1539 Watermont Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,002 (-3%)	2mo	$599,000	$200	59
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (-9%)	0mo	$588,989	$208	50
2610 Orleans Way	0.72mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,527 (+14%)	2mo	$600,000	$170	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-96,302
• Equity at exit: $111,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-139,325
• Equity at exit: $102,884

Cash invested: $148,294 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 254 active · 59 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $594,400 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1543
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,777
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$662 /mo · $7,944/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$853
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,633

Max offer price $464,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-270	+0% $-453	+5% $-636	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-773	-5% $-613	+0% $-453	+5% $-292	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-318	base $-453	+0.5pp $-590	+1.0pp $-729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,406
• Closing costs: $15,889
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	28d	1	0.60mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	1d	1	0.63mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	52d	1	0.71mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.96mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.97mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	1.02mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	3d	1	1.02mi
2918 Five Oaks Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,350	$0.95	28d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Missouri City, TX 77459
• Financial info: List price $512,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan home (Adam)Listed as single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,098 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Adam)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-built home)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $512,995 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $512,995 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $512,995 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $512,995 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $512,995 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $512,995 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $512,995 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $512,995 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $512,995 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $512,995 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $512,995 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $512,995 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $512,995 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $512,995 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $512,995 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $512,995 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $512,995 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $512,995 Active 75 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $512,995 Active 74 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $512,995 Active 73 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $512,995 Active 72 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $512,995 Active 71 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $512,995 Active 70 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $512,995 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $512,995 Active 67 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $512,995 Active 66 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $512,995 Active 65 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $512,995 Active 64 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $512,995 Active 63 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $512,995 Active 62 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $512,995 Active 61 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $512,995 Active 60 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $512,995 Active 59 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $512,995 Active 58 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $512,995 Active 57 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $512,995 Active 56 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $512,995 Active 54 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $512,995 Active 52 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $512,995 Active 51 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $512,995 Active 48 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $512,995 Active 47 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $512,995 Active 46 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $512,995 Active 45 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $512,995 Active 43 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $512,995 Active 39 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $512,995 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $512,995 Active 34 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $512,995 Active 33 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $512,995 Active 32 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $512,995 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,667
• − Property taxes: −$7,944
• − Insurance: −$2,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,898
• − Management: −$3,898
• − Depreciation: −$15,407
• Taxable loss: −$14,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a high ROI with updates that can further enhance its appeal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Missouri City, TX 77459
• Financial info: List price $512,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan home (Adam)Listed as single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,098 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan: Adam)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-built home)