Gillingham-Rev Plan · Erie, CO 80516

$230,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,094 sqft · Townhouse · 237 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Village Cooperative of Erie is UNDER CONSTRUCTION to give active seniors (62+) a fabulous home ownership option in this beautiful area! The city of Erie offers a progressive civic vision with a genuine small-town feel which makes it the perfect location for our newest Village Cooperative in Colorado. You will be able to live the lifestyle you've earned as you enjoy all the benefits of ownership without any of the maintenance hassles in this wonderful community that offers all the recreation and amenities to enjoy whether you are working or retired. You simply won't find a better value anywhere in the area with all the amenities.

Key facts

• Reading areas
• Hobby shop
• Guest suite

Tags

• COMMUNITY AND CLUB AREAS
• HOBBY SHOP
• READING AREAS
• GUEST SUITE
• GARDEN PLOTS
• FULLY SECURE BUILDING

🏗️ New construction. The $230,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $447,664.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Rock Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #95 of 966 statewide, top 11%, 607 students, 10% FRL); Erie Middle School (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D+, #52 of 270 statewide, top 19%, 731 students, 14% FRL); Erie High School (math 48% / reading 71%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 1,754 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 11% FRL vs 27% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 508 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($169k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.03%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,664
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -48.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2745 Blue Sky Cir Unit 1-203	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	1mo	$295,000	$255	56
2875 Blue Sky Cir Unit 4-106	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	3mo	$290,000	$251	56
2985 Blue Sky Cir Unit 7-304	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	4mo	$317,000	$274	56
3000 Blue Sky Cir Unit 11-305	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,002 (-8%)	0mo	$250,000	$250	55
2745 Blue Sky Cir Unit 1-306	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	2mo	$295,000	$255	55
3095 Blue Sky Cir Unit 13-203	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	9mo	$325,000	$281	55
3155 Blue Sky Cir #104	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	12mo	$360,000	$311	54
1425 Blue Sky Cir Unit 15-105	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	7mo	$328,000	$284	53
3155 Blue Sky Cir Unit 16-103	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	14mo	$320,000	$277	52
3100 Blue Sky Cir #205	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	12mo	$295,000	$255	51
3045 Blue Sky Cir #105	0.70mi	2/—	1,156 (+6%)	14mo	$343,423	$297	46
2900 Blue Sky Cir Unit 5-103	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,002 (-8%)	10mo	$307,000	$306	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-159,361
• Equity at exit: $66,748

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-268,026
• Equity at exit: $38,706

Cash invested: $125,346 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $288,000 ($241/sqft)
• Median days on market: 197 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +69.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80516

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 508
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$560 /mo · $6,715/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-1,257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,916

Max offer price $265,816

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-947	-5% $-1,102	+0% $-1,257	+5% $-1,411	+10% $-1,566
Rent	-10% $-1,440	-5% $-1,349	+0% $-1,257	+5% $-1,165	+10% $-1,073
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,031	-0.5pp $-1,143	base $-1,257	+0.5pp $-1,373	+1.0pp $-1,491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,916
• Closing costs: $13,430
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Ridge View Cir Erie, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1224	$2,408	$1.97	0d	12	0.14mi
16785 Sheridan Pkwy Broomfield, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,262	$2.17	0d	20	0.43mi
3035 Blue Sky Cir Unit 10-105 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,995	$1.73	116d	1	0.61mi
3035 Blue Sky Cir Unit 10-204 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,965	$1.70	6d	1	0.61mi
1450 Blue Sky Way Unit 12-208 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1271	$1,949	$1.53	6d	1	0.67mi
1752 W 167th Ave Broomfield, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,576	$2.32	0d	49	0.70mi
2855 Blue Sky Cir Unit 3-304 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,795	$1.55	0d	1	0.72mi
3045 Blue Sky Cir Unit 18-202 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1259	$2,000	$1.59	109d	1	0.72mi
16600 Peak St Broomfield, CO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1357	$2,734	$2.01	0d	16	0.76mi
1151 Spring Pl Broomfield, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,368	$2.57	0d	134	0.89mi
16893 Palisade Loop Broomfield, CO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1614	$2,560	$1.59	0d	19	1.22mi
16815 Huron St Broomfield, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,063	$2.26	0d	23	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $230,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planGillingham-Rev model
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,094Listed in 2026
• Exterior features: Located in Village Vis community, Erie CO

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (1.5 total bathrooms)
• Interior features: Plan home (Gillingham-Rev)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 214 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $230,000 Active 213 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $230,000 Active 212 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $230,000 Active 211 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $230,000 Active 210 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $230,000 Active 209 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $230,000 Active 208 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $230,000 Active 207 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $230,000 Active 206 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $230,000 Active 205 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $230,000 Active 204 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $230,000 Active 203 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $230,000 Active 202 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $230,000 Active 201 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $230,000 Active 200 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $230,000 Active 199 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $230,000 Active 198 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $230,000 Active 197 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 196 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 195 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $230,000 Active 194 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 193 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 192 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 191 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $230,000 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $230,000 Active 182 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $230,000 Active 180 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $230,000 Active 178 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $230,000 Active 176 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $230,000 Active 175 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $230,000 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,076
• − Property taxes: −$6,715
• − Insurance: −$2,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$13,023
• Taxable loss: −$23,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $54,700–$98,460 screening

This property is under construction and requires extensive repairs and updates to become habitable and valuable.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof
• Major siding — No visible siding
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's safety and value ↑
• Both siding repair/replacement — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Black Rock Elementary B- CO #95/966 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Erie Middle School D+ CO #52/270 Nat'l #4,522/14,009 High Erie High School C+ CO #53/381 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,571
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #4353
• State rank: #23 of 86 in CO

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Erie

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #5110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, CO
• County: Weld County · 351,957 people
• City population: 39,048
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 39,048
• Household income: $168,725
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.34%
• Current HPI: 242.1832
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.48%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $230,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planGillingham-Rev model
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,094Listed in 2026
• Exterior features: Located in Village Vis community, Erie CO

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (1.5 total bathrooms)
• Interior features: Plan home (Gillingham-Rev)