11-2443 Makoa Rd · Fern Forest, HI 96785

$198,880

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 496 sqft · Other public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1991 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractor Special. Adjacent parcel also available for sale, giving you the potential of 6 Acres total. (Not Included at Advertised Price) Inquire with your agent for details. Opportunity awaits at 11-2443 Makoa Rd in Volcano. Located in the peaceful and private Fern Forest Vacation Estates subdivision. Situated on 3 acres, this property offers a rare combination of space, privacy, and potential. The property features two dwellings, creating flexible possibilities for extended family living, rental potential, guest quarters, or a future renovation project. Surrounded by lush native greenery, the setting feels private and tucked away, offering the quiet Volcano lifestyle many buyers are look

Key facts

• Two dwellings
• Private retreat
• Lush native greenery

Tags

• TWO DWELLINGS
• 3 ACRES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• LUSH NATIVE GREENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Not used as a short-term vacation rental

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Water supplied by catchment; Cesspool sewer system; No scheduled solid waste disposal
• Exterior features: Fee simple land ownership; Located in Lava Zone 3; Zoned A-3A; Graded road access; Annual road maintenance fee (approx. $200)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#147 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, housing D+.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $199k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $133,800 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.09%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,592
• Equity at exit: $64,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,172
• Equity at exit: $82,916

Cash invested: $55,686 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96785

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,568/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $148,916

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-227	+0% $-283	+5% $-339	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-336	+0% $-283	+5% $-230	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-232	base $-283	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,720
• Closing costs: $5,966
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,880 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,880 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,880 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,880 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $198,880 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $215,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-01
    listed $225,000 Active 1051-char remark
11. 2025-10-21
    soldstatus $114,466
12. 1988-04-12
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,568 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,568 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,140
• − Property taxes: −$2,568
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$7,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Fern Forest

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #25444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fern Forest, HI
• Population (ZIP): 4,224

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Two or more races 39% Hispanic / Latino 16% Pacific Islander 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Current HPI: 185.9474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+573.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,466 Public Records
• 1988-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,568 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.