3197 Valley Vw · Middleburg, FL 32068

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1990 1.04 ac lot Est $185k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable country living! This well-maintained 1990 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and approximately 1,100 square feet of comfortable living space, all situated on a beautiful 1-acre lot. Enjoy the peace and privacy of rural living with plenty of room for gardening, pets, outdoor activities, or future improvements. Inside, you'll find a functional split-bedroom floor plan with a spacious living area, a cozy kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a primary suite featuring a private bathroom. The additional two bedrooms and second full bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the expansive lot offers endless possibi

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Well maintained
• Private bathroom

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Property is attached
• Exterior features: 1.04-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 49% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $175k implies a 17390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4249 Deer Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-2%)	7mo	$175,000	$162	67
4053 Sunnyside Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	952 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$168	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,024
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $42,608
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $517	+0% $467	+5% $418	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $391	+0% $467	+5% $543	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $512	base $467	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $179,900
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $599,000 Active
17. 2022-11-25
    historical
18. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus $1,000
19. 2001-02-20
    soldstatus $16,000
20. 1988-09-06
    soldstatus $12,000
21. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 97.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $2,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$691
• After-tax cash flow: $4,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2898.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $179,900 realMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $599,000 realMLS
• 2022-11-25 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.