7909 N Tecumseh Rd · Koontz Lake, IN 46574

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1931 7,500 sqft lot $142/sqft · 8% below area Est $109k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is the opportunity to enjoy peaceful living just a short distance from beautiful Koontz Lake! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a cozy and functional layout, perfect for year-round living, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity. Step inside to find a comfortable living space filled with natural light and an easy flow through the home. Outside, you’ll appreciate the quiet setting—ideal for relaxing evenings, entertaining, or enjoying everything the nearby lake lifestyle has to offer.

Key facts

• Quiet setting
• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1931

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL KOONTZ LAKE
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE
• QUIET SETTING
• NEARBY LAKE LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.1% in Koontz Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#516 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Oregon-Davis School Corporation (rural): math 19% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #257 of 301 in IN (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Starke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Starke County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.73%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,129
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -8.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7993 N Tippecanoe Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0	773 (+10%)	0mo	$290,000	$375	75
8093 Tippecanoe Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	700 (-1%)	21mo	$330,000	$471	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,154
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,697
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46574

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $348	+0% $320	+5% $292	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $274	+0% $320	+5% $366	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $345	base $320	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $109,900 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Here is the opportunity to enjoy peaceful living just a short distance from beautiful Koontz Lake! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a cozy and functional layout, perfect for year-round living, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity. Step inside to find a comfortable living space filled with natural light and an easy flow through the home. Outside, you’ll appreciate the quiet setting—ideal for relaxing evenings, entertaining, or enjoying everything the nearby lake lifestyle has to offer.

18. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    2 bed home located one block from Koontz Lake. Sheds, Pavers and a pier on Koontz Lake are included with this sale. Brand New Gas Range and Refrigerator. 4 inch well. This home is sitting on 3 lots. Home is being sold in "As Is" condition.

19. 2023-11-03
    status Pending 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    2 bed home located one block from Koontz Lake. Sheds, Pavers and a pier on Koontz Lake are included with this sale. Brand New Gas Range and Refrigerator. 4 inch well. This home is sitting on 3 lots. Home is being sold in "As Is" condition.

20. 2023-10-10
    historical Active Under Contract 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    2 bed home located one block from Koontz Lake. Sheds, Pavers and a pier on Koontz Lake are included with this sale. Brand New Gas Range and Refrigerator. 4 inch well. This home is sitting on 3 lots. Home is being sold in "As Is" condition.

21. 2023-10-04
    listed $94,000 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    2 bed home located one block from Koontz Lake. Sheds, Pavers and a pier on Koontz Lake are included with this sale. Brand New Gas Range and Refrigerator. 4 inch well. This home is sitting on 3 lots. Home is being sold in "As Is" condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 70.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$557
• After-tax cash flow: $3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon-Davis School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808460
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,674
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7991
• State rank: #257 of 301 in IN

Livability — Koontz Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #18383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Koontz Lake, IN
• Population (ZIP): 7,414

Population outlook (Starke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,860 people
• By 2030: 21,024 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 16,881 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 11,880 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 7,217 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Starke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.3pp toward R · 2008: 3.2pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.8 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: D+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.04%
• Current HPI: 260.7073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $109,900 IRMLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (MLS) $100,000 IRMLS
• 2023-11-03 Pending — IRMLS
• 2023-10-10 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $94,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $353 · +64.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.