1014 Cherokee · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$275,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1964 6,780 sqft lot $417/sqft · 15% below area Est $323k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-bedroom, one-bath cabin located in a quiet area of Fawnskin, just minutes from Big Bear Lake. This original family cabin is full of mountain charm and ready for a new owner’s vision. A true fixer with plenty of potential, this property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create their own mountain getaway or family retreat. Bring your ideas and make this cabin your next project while building lasting memories in the mountains. With its peaceful setting and classic cabin feel, this little cutie is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Mountain charm
• Fixer
• Great opportunity

Tags

• QUIET AREA
• MOUNTAIN CHARM
• FIXER
• GREAT OPPORTUNITY
• MOUNTAIN GETAWAY
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property
• Financial info: Assessments unknown
• HOA & community: Community offers watersports, horse trails, biking, hiking, fishing, mountainous terrain, BLM/National Forest access, lake access, parks, and hunting

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected (District/Public); Sewer status unknown
• Home design: Single-story house; No ADU
• Construction: Composition roof; No common walls; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: No fencing; Upslope from street; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Has heating
• Interior features: One-level home; Back door entry; Main floor bedroom(s)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,850 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,836
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -14.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1167 Brookside Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0	650 (-2%)	4mo	$265,000	$408	88
39116 Rim Of The World Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	624 (-6%)	22mo	$319,750	$512	58
336 Big Bear Trl	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	630 (-4%)	2mo	$240,000	$381	54
39632 Flicker Rd	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	616 (-7%)	18mo	$360,000	$584	48
1137 Ridge Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	751 (+14%)	7mo	$389,999	$519	47
1130 Ridge Rd	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (+13%)	22mo	$365,000	$491	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,411
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,939
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $239,765

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-122	+0% $-199	+5% $-277	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-270	+0% $-199	+5% $-128	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-130	base $-199	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	1.0	1.0	538	$1,699	$3.16	0d	1	0.24mi
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	2.0	1.0	538	$1,898	$3.53	45d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $275,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Two-bedroom, one-bath cabin located in a quiet area of Fawnskin, just minutes from Big Bear Lake. This original family cabin is full of mountain charm and ready for a new owner’s vision. A true fixer with plenty of potential, this property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create their own mountain getaway or family retreat. Bring your ideas and make this cabin your next project while building lasting memories in the mountains. With its peaceful setting and classic cabin feel, this little cutie is ready for its next chapter.

17. 2026-05-13
    listed $275,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Two-bedroom, one-bath cabin located in a quiet area of Fawnskin, just minutes from Big Bear Lake. This original family cabin is full of mountain charm and ready for a new owner’s vision. A true fixer with plenty of potential, this property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create their own mountain getaway or family retreat. Bring your ideas and make this cabin your next project while building lasting memories in the mountains. With its peaceful setting and classic cabin feel, this little cutie is ready for its next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,327/yr (+$111/mo · 174.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥83°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $275,000 MRCAOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.