12212 Mumford Dr · Baton Rouge, LA 70807

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1975 5,924 sqft lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $157k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated 4BDR/2BA home with convenient access to I-110 and great neighborhood amenities i.e. parks, walking trails and the zoo. The 4th bedroom offers flexibility and can be used as a home office, study or additional living space. Contact listing agent to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Zoo
• Parks
• Walking trails

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-110
• GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• PARKS
• WALKING TRAILS
• ZOO
• 4TH BEDROOM FLEXIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Baton Rouge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,510/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 1092% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,056
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2204 S Brock Pl	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-0%)	8mo	$159,000	$108	90
12252 W Brock Pl	0.13mi	4/1.5	1,370 (-7%)	4mo	$149,500	$109	78
12239 Joe Louis Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,471 (0%)	24mo	$88,000	$60	76
2289 Plantation Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	23mo	$170,000	$113	74
2352 Marci Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,530 (+4%)	1mo	$175,000	$114	72
2362 Marci Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	4mo	$154,540	$107	67
2125 Davenport Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-10%)	17mo	$189,900	$144	57
1991 Cunard Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-6%)	13mo	$125,000	$91	57
3027 Gore Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-4%)	5mo	$79,900	$56	56
12223 Palmyra Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,607 (+9%)	20mo	$178,500	$111	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,973
• Equity at exit: $37,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $43,588
• Equity at exit: $39,792

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70807

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $332	+0% $290	+5% $247	+10% $205
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $230	+0% $290	+5% $349	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $328	base $290	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12246 Palmyra Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,095	$1.04	45d	1	0.22mi
1648 Kildeer St Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,025	$0.71	22d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $150,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Newly renovated 4BDR/2BA home with convenient access to I-110 and great neighborhood amenities i. e. parks, walking trails and the zoo. The 4th bedroom offers flexibility and can be used as a home office, study or additional living space. Contact listing agent to schedule a showing.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $150,000 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Newly renovated 4BDR/2BA home with convenient access to I-110 and great neighborhood amenities i. e. parks, walking trails and the zoo. The 4th bedroom offers flexibility and can be used as a home office, study or additional living space. Contact listing agent to schedule a showing.

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $160,000 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Newly renovated 4BDR/2BA home with convenient access to I-110 and great neighborhood amenities i. e. parks, walking trails and the zoo. The 4th bedroom offers flexibility and can be used as a home office, study or additional living space. Contact listing agent to schedule a showing.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $160,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Newly renovated 4BDR/2BA home with convenient access to I-110 and great neighborhood amenities i. e. parks, walking trails and the zoo. The 4th bedroom offers flexibility and can be used as a home office, study or additional living space. Contact listing agent to schedule a showing.

20. 1979-07-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $649 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Baton Rouge

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #4535

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baton Rouge, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 351,868
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 15,300
• Household income: $27,534
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Two or more races 6% White 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Current HPI: 78.3629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $150,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $150,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $160,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 1979-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.