8421 Willowick Dr · Houston, TX 77389

$77,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2021 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LAND IS NOT FOR SALE WITH HOME LOT RENT IS DUE MONTLY 2022 Custom built Champion Manufactured Home with metal roof. Open concept living, dining and kitchen with vaulted ceilings with beams and fan. All bedrooms have walk in closets. Appliances stay with home including updated refrigerator. Master has a luxury bathroom including walk in shower and soaker tub. Home can be moved at buyer& apos; s expense. Current Lot Rent is $790 per month which includes trash service.

Key facts

• Luxury bathroom
• Walk in closets
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• UPDATED REFRIGERATOR
• LUXURY BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER
• SOAKER TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,731 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.97%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $45,601
• Equity at exit: $11,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $109,379
• Equity at exit: $6,735

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,006/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $989	-5% $967	+0% $945	+5% $923	+10% $901
Rent	-10% $798	-5% $871	+0% $945	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,092
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $965	base $945	+0.5pp $925	+1.0pp $904

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24215 Kuykendahl Rd Tomball, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,460	$1.74	0d	20	0.38mi
23902 Kuykendahl Rd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,634	$1.62	0d	24	0.53mi
8006 Ward Ln Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,540	$1.36	44d	1	0.58mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 8664 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$2,109	$1.94	12d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 2228 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$2,069	$1.91	0d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 3174 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,409	$1.68	12d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 8660 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,325	$1.62	44d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 3228 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,369	$1.65	0d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Unit 2174 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$2,110	$1.94	0d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Apt 424 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$2,085	$1.92	8d	1	0.94mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,664	$1.38	25d	1	1.02mi
8627 Hufsmith Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,664	$1.38	44d	1	1.02mi
8633 Hufsmith Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,669	$1.38	0d	1	1.03mi
9334 Hufsmith Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,664	$1.38	25d	1	1.29mi
8011 Augusta Pines Dr Unit 8068 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,525	$1.38	13d	1	1.34mi
8011 Augusta Pines Dr Unit 8034 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,693	$1.35	12d	1	1.34mi
8011 Augusta Pines Dr Unit 2228 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,653	$1.32	0d	1	1.34mi
8011 Augusta Pines Dr Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,669	$1.34	8d	1	1.34mi
8011 Augusta Pines Dr Unit 2047 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,693	$1.35	4d	1	1.35mi
8017 Augusta Pines Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,499	$1.35	44d	1	1.37mi
7839 Augusta Pines Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,571	$1.45	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $77,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 41.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$1,006
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $10,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,574
• After-tax cash flow: $8,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with significant landscaping and exterior maintenance needed. Improvements in these areas would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — The independent image shows overgrown vegetation that needs trimming and maintenance.
• Major Exterior painting — The independent image shows a lack of maintenance, indicating the need for exterior painting.
• Major Landscaping — The independent image shows overgrown vegetation that needs trimming and maintenance.
• Major Exterior painting — The independent image shows a lack of maintenance, indicating the need for exterior painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improving the landscaping and exterior painting would enhance the curb appeal and potentially increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior, such as painting and minor repairs, would improve the home's condition and appeal to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The independent image shows overgrown vegetation that needs trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior painting · The independent image shows a lack of maintenance, indicating the need for exterior painting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · The independent image shows overgrown vegetation that needs trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior painting · The independent image shows a lack of maintenance, indicating the need for exterior painting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improving the landscaping and exterior painting would enhance the curb appeal and potentially increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior, such as painting and minor repairs, would improve the home's condition and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $77,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,006 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.