6648 Pony Ln · Nocatee, FL 32095

$364,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2019 1.27 ac lot Est $349k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home Sweet Home! Incredible opportunity to own a home on 1.27 acres in St. Johns County with no HOA. An open floor plan with 2 master suites and 2 large bedrooms and 3 full baths with a large kitchen! Perfect for entertaining! The master suite has a huge walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom with a jetted tub and separate shower and access to the laundry room! And what about the mother-in-law's suite with a full private bathroom! Location is everything...10 minute drive to downtown St. Augustine. 10 minutes from Vilano Beach, minutes from World Golf Village and 40 minutes from JAX Airport!

Key facts

• New landscaping
• New paint
• 1.27 acres

Tags

• 1.27 ACRES
• NEW PAINT
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palencia Elementary School (math 82% / reading 80%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 781 students, 15% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $365k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,049 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,440
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6648 Pony Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,184 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$160	95
6536 Sherry Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-9%)	16mo	$260,000	$131	56
361 Coopers Cove Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,964 (-10%)	2mo	$360,000	$183	49
6451 Santina Way	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-14%)	23mo	$290,000	$155	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-68,401
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-80,782
• Equity at exit: $31,558

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,621/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,786

Max offer price $348,820

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $12	+0% $-92	+5% $-195	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-197	+0% $-92	+5% $14	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $1	base $-92	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Island View Cir St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,495	$1.73	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $364,999
3. 2026-03-16
   price $369,999
4. 2026-03-06
   price $379,900
5. 2026-03-02
   listed $399,900 Active
6. 2026-01-12
   soldstatus $210,000
7. 2022-12-20
   historical 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! Incredible opportunity to own a home on 1.27 acres in St. Johns County with no HOA. An open floor plan with 2 master suites and 2 large bedrooms and 3 full baths with a large kitchen! Perfect for entertaining! The master suite has a huge walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom with a jetted tub and separate shower and access to the laundry room! And what about the mother-in-law's suite with a full private bathroom! Location is everything...10 minute drive to downtown St. Augustine. 10 minutes from Vilano Beach, minutes from World Golf Village and 40 minutes from JAX Airport!

8. 2022-10-09
   price $325,000

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! Incredible opportunity to own a home on 1.27 acres in St. Johns County with no HOA. An open floor plan with 2 master suites and 2 large bedrooms and 3 full baths with a large kitchen! Perfect for entertaining! The master suite has a huge walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom with a jetted tub and separate shower and access to the laundry room! And what about the mother-in-law's suite with a full private bathroom! Location is everything...10 minute drive to downtown St. Augustine. 10 minutes from Vilano Beach, minutes from World Golf Village and 40 minutes from JAX Airport!

9. 2022-10-09
   price $325,000 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! Incredible opportunity to own a home on 1.27 acres in St. Johns County with no HOA. An open floor plan with 2 master suites and 2 large bedrooms and 3 full baths with a large kitchen! Perfect for entertaining! The master suite has a huge walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom with a jetted tub and separate shower and access to the laundry room! And what about the mother-in-law's suite with a full private bathroom! Location is everything...10 minute drive to downtown St. Augustine. 10 minutes from Vilano Beach, minutes from World Golf Village and 40 minutes from JAX Airport!

10. 2022-09-14
    listed $350,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Home Sweet Home! Incredible opportunity to own a home on 1.27 acres in St. Johns County with no HOA. An open floor plan with 2 master suites and 2 large bedrooms and 3 full baths with a large kitchen! Perfect for entertaining! The master suite has a huge walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom with a jetted tub and separate shower and access to the laundry room! And what about the mother-in-law's suite with a full private bathroom! Location is everything...10 minute drive to downtown St. Augustine. 10 minutes from Vilano Beach, minutes from World Golf Village and 40 minutes from JAX Airport!

11. 2022-09-09
    historical
12. 2022-09-06
    historical
13. 2022-08-29
    price $349,900
14. 2022-08-16
    price $399,900
15. 2022-08-16
    price $399,900
16. 2022-08-16
    price $399,900
17. 2022-08-09
    price $429,900
18. 2022-08-09
    price $429,900
19. 2022-08-08
    price $429,900
20. 2022-08-03
    listed $450,000 Active
21. 2022-07-15
    listed $450,000 Active
22. 2009-03-25
    soldstatus $89,000
23. 1992-11-25
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,621 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,408/yr (+$117/mo · 86.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$1,621
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,564
• − Management: −$2,564
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$7,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1360.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $364,999 realMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $369,999 realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $379,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $399,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-10-09 Price Changed $325,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-10-09 Price Changed $325,000 realMLS
• 2022-09-14 Listed $350,000 realMLS
• 2022-09-09 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-29 Price Changed $349,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $399,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $399,900 realMLS
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $399,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $429,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $429,900 realMLS
• 2022-08-08 Price Changed $429,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-03 Listed $450,000 realMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listed $450,000 Beaches MLS
• 2009-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,621 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.