6865 Johnson Mill Rd · Hopkinsville, KY 42240

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 2.02 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living with all the extras! Newly remodeled bath, new pump/filter on the pool; and new windows in 2013. A pond is on the property, along with a 3 bay shop with electric and water. Must see!

Key facts

• Spacious 2 acre lot
• 2.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS 2 ACRE LOT
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing structure (year built listed as existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Property sits on about 2.02 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level), each about 12 x 12
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 4.3% in Hopkinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crofton Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Christian County High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,187 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.12%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $39,181
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $113,225
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42240

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $663/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 598-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$663
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $7,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $6,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Christian County
• NCES district ID: 2101150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,961
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7118
• State rank: #93 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hopkinsville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #14474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Christian County · 51,080 people
• City population: 41,415
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 41,415
• Household income: $51,534
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,861 people
• By 2030: 65,808 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 60,090 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 54,561 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 45,859 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 38,310 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.36%
• Current HPI: 233.3958
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $59,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 2016-06-20 Sold (MLS) $84,900 HCTCBOR
• 2016-06-20 Sold (MLS) $84,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-08 Listed $84,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-04 Listed $84,900 HCTCBOR
• 2013-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $663 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.