3B Greenwood Ln #62 · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1982 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 1-car garage $193/sqft · 16% below area Est $243k · 16% under $149/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$210,000 now! Spacious, beautifully renovated and pristine is this 1061 sq ft Orleans Model in desirable Active Adult community Crestwood 6 (FEE SIMPLE not a co-op). This home offers OVER $24,000 in Seller improvements & upgrades since 11/23. Utility costs are LOWER: 2023 Heat Pump so avg 2025 electric bill was $136 monthly w/ heat @ 72 degrees 24/7 in Winter; $175 Summer. Just a few of the recent upgrades include: electric panel, hot water heater, washer & dryer, attic steps, attic & crawlspace insulation/protection, security system, Andersen storm door, custom window treatments, improved curb appeal & MORE!

Key facts

• Security system
• Andersen storm door
• Hot water heater

Tags

• 2023 HEAT PUMP
• ELECTRIC PANEL
• HOT WATER HEATER
• SECURITY SYSTEM
• ANDERSEN STORM DOOR
• CUSTOM WINDOW TREATMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 6.8% in Crestwood Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,606 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,045
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -15.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.11mi	1/1.0	1,009 (-5%)	4mo	$190,000	$188	84
33 Medford Rd Unit A	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-5%)	2mo	$175,000	$174	76
9A Ardsley Ave #64	0.61mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,076 (+1%)	0mo	$178,000	$165	62
108 Sunset Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+15%)	1mo	$190,000	$156	61
14C Amesbury Rd #64	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,076 (+1%)	3mo	$190,000	$177	61
50D Stonybrook Rd	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	924 (-13%)	0mo	$155,000	$168	60
5 Berkeley St Unit A	0.64mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,098 (+4%)	2mo	$189,900	$173	55
19 Dartmouth St	0.24mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+15%)	0mo	$210,000	$172	55
144 B Sunset Rd #60	0.38mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,184 (+12%)	3mo	$242,000	$204	53
2 Darien Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$176	52
16B Amesbury Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (+1)	965 (-9%)	1mo	$195,000	$202	50
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.60mi	2/1.0 (+1)	965 (-9%)	4mo	$168,000	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-43,961
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-51,785
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,200 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$149
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $180,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-100	+0% $-171	+5% $-241	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-240	+0% $-171	+5% $-101	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-118	base $-171	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27A Stonybrook Rd Unit 61 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	814	$1,750	$2.15	9d	1	0.07mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	120d	1	0.69mi
48B Milford Ave #53 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,850	$1.83	0d	1	0.71mi
35 Milford Ave #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1101	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.87mi
4 Grouse Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	0d	1	0.96mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	112d	1	0.96mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	94d	1	0.97mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	106d	1	0.99mi
88 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	68d	1	1.09mi
123 Woodchuck Pkwy Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	65d	1	1.10mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	99d	1	1.12mi
94 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	67d	1	1.12mi
54 Constitution Blvd Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1198	$1,325	$1.11	38d	1	1.19mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	99d	1	1.33mi
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	139d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Crestwood 6 associationMonthly association fee of $149Association covers trash, liability/fire insurance, lawn maintenance, and snow removalCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community room, and bocci

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: OrleansFee simple ownership
• Construction: Bilco style basement accessCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roofLevel topographyAttached property (townhome/attached unit)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking / stoveMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingElectric heat pump and central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lightingWindow treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Light fixturesScreensSecurity systemBilco style basement doorsCrawl space
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerGarage door opener

HOA detail $149/mo · $1,788/yr

• Likely covers: waterelectricsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-09-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-09-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-09-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-09-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-09-11
   days on market $205,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-09-05
   days on market $205,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-09-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-09-02
   days on market $205,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-08-29
    days on market $210,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-08-28
    days on market $210,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-08-27
    days on market $210,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-08-26
    days on market $210,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-08-25
    days on market $210,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-08-24
    days on market $210,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-08-23
    days on market $210,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-08-22
    days on market $210,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-08-21
    days on market $210,000 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-08-20
    days on market $210,000 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-08-19
    days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-08-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-08-17
    days on market $210,000 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-08-16
    days on market $210,000 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-08-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-08-14
    days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-08-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-08-12
    days on market $210,000 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-08-11
    days on market $210,000 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-08-10
    days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-08-09
    days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-08-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-08-06
    days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-08-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-08-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-08-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-07-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
38. 2026-07-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
39. 2026-07-28
    days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
40. 2026-07-26
    days on market $210,000 Active 84 DOM
41. 2026-07-24
    days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-07-23
    days on market $210,000 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-07-22
    days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-21
    days on market $210,000 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-07-20
    days on market $210,000 Active 78 DOM
46. 2026-07-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
47. 2026-07-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
48. 2026-07-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
49. 2026-07-14
    days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − HOA: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,328
• After-tax cash flow: $-718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,305–$15,915 screening

This well-maintained, recently renovated home offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's a great opportunity for an investor looking to make some cosmetic updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring in kitchen — Modern flooring can enhance the kitchen's appearance and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• City population: 34,290
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Crestwood 6 associationMonthly association fee of $149Association covers trash, liability/fire insurance, lawn maintenance, and snow removalCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community room, and bocci

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: OrleansFee simple ownership
• Construction: Bilco style basement accessCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roofLevel topographyAttached property (townhome/attached unit)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking / stoveMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingElectric heat pump and central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lightingWindow treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Light fixturesScreensSecurity systemBilco style basement doorsCrawl space
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerGarage door opener

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-28 Price Changed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $219,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $225,000 MOMLS