3512 Walnut St · Progress, PA 17109

$550,000

30 bd · None ba · — sqft · MultiFamily

Built 1900 Fair condition 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This is a 5 Unit. Property under contract as part of a package deal.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $550k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive. Per door: $491/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $550k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Progress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#385 in PA, #3,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Susquehanna Township SD (suburban): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #444 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomas W Holtzman Jr El Sch (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 820 students, 67% FRL); Susquehanna Twp Ms (math 7% / reading 34%, grade F, #435 of 512 statewide, top 85%, 723 students, 63% FRL); Susquehanna Twp Hs (math 37% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 743 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 81 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,921/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $550,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.14%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $86,797
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $360,830
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 28.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$688 /mo · $8,250/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,663
• Net cashflow: $2,457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,811

Max offer price $550,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,837	-5% $2,647	+0% $2,457	+5% $2,267	+10% $2,077
Rent	-10% $1,831	-5% $2,144	+0% $2,457	+5% $2,770	+10% $3,082
Rate	-1.0pp $2,734	-0.5pp $2,597	base $2,457	+0.5pp $2,314	+1.0pp $2,169

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	3	1	$7,920
Total (5 units)			$7,921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   listed $550,000
2. 2026-04-07
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $95,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$8,250
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,604
• − Management: −$7,604
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable income: $22,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,288
• After-tax cash flow: $24,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — White siding has some discoloration
• Minor Landscaping — Some bushes appear dry

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping — Healthy landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · White siding has some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some bushes appear dry	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Healthy landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susquehanna Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4223010
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,794
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #444 of 539 in PA

Livability — Progress

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #3436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $550,000 BRIGHT MLS