6251 N Blue Blvd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1989 1.11 ac lot $156/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private setting at the end of Blue Blvd. Needs a little TLC. Nice fireplace in living room. Eating area and breakfast bar off the kitchen. Easy Country Living! Seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Home sold as-is.

Key facts

• Fenced area
• Private setting
• 1.11 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• FENCED AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered slab patio/porch; Chain link, barbed wire and wood fencing; North/South exposure; Dirt road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Has heating and cooling
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.7% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $180k implies a 620% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,487
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 53.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6319 N Taylor Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	8mo	$101,500	$79	65
12437 W Nolen Rd	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	18mo	$120,000	$114	44
11560 W Orange Grove Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	19mo	$235,000	$191	38
11930 W Lord Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	23mo	$204,000	$202	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,561
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,754
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6820 N Blue Blvd Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	10d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $199,999 Active 276-char remark
17. 2014-04-14
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Private setting at the end of Blue Blvd. Needs a little TLC. Nice fireplace in living room. Eating area and breakfast bar off the kitchen. Easy Country Living! Seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Home sold as-is.

18. 2014-01-15
    historical Active CAPA 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Private setting at the end of Blue Blvd. Needs a little TLC. Nice fireplace in living room. Eating area and breakfast bar off the kitchen. Easy Country Living! Seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Home sold as-is.

19. 2013-12-28
    price $25,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Private setting at the end of Blue Blvd. Needs a little TLC. Nice fireplace in living room. Eating area and breakfast bar off the kitchen. Easy Country Living! Seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Home sold as-is.

20. 2013-11-08
    listed $30,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Private setting at the end of Blue Blvd. Needs a little TLC. Nice fireplace in living room. Eating area and breakfast bar off the kitchen. Easy Country Living! Seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Home sold as-is.

21. 2006-01-05
    soldstatus $75,000
22. 2002-02-04
    historical
23. 2001-10-18
    listed $78,000
24. 1999-09-08
    soldstatus $23,000
25. 1991-03-19
    soldstatus $19,000
26. 1991-03-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 76.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $4,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+847.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-23 Listed $199,999 MLSSAZ
• 2014-04-14 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-01-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2013-12-28 Price Changed $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-11-08 Listed $30,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2001-10-18 Listed $78,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.