12511 Hillview Dr · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1954 0.46 ac lot $102/sqft · 25% below area Est $206k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor ready! Tenant occupied property for sale. 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch home. Great investment property already generating income. No showings without accepted contract.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $155,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$205,989) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.63%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,989
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -24.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1618 Clock Tower Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	7mo	$248,900	$156	68
12654 Treeyard Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,676 (+10%)	9mo	$139,000	$83	62
1421 San Salvador Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (-1%)	13mo	$144,900	$96	60
12361 Santa Maria Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+9%)	4mo	$135,000	$82	58
13057 Lakeridge Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,314 (-14%)	6mo	$170,000	$129	55
12336 Lusher Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,548 (+2%)	2mo	$189,900	$123	54
1772 Meadowdale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+10%)	16mo	$234,900	$140	54
13091 E Lakeridge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,313 (-14%)	2mo	$75,000	$57	53
1737 Parker Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,466 (-4%)	21mo	$129,900	$89	51
12702 Meadowdale Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+10%)	18mo	$214,900	$128	47
1767 Edgebriar Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,443 (-5%)	22mo	$214,900	$149	46
17 Nob Hill Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-13%)	5mo	$230,000	$175	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-23,369
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,182
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,319/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Krenning Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,125	$0.96	23d	1	0.76mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	17d	1	0.82mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	1d	9	0.85mi
1510 Trampe Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,600	$1.01	1d	1	0.88mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	1d	3	1.06mi
1386 Fairmeadows Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1512	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.06mi
1516 Farmview Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,295	$1.12	43d	1	1.08mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	43d	1	1.12mi
1459 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	20d	1	1.12mi
1202 Laredo Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	16d	1	1.25mi
1209 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1535	$1,295	$0.84	43d	1	1.31mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	43d	1	1.34mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	1.35mi
11726 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,420	$1.18	23d	1	1.39mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	43d	1	1.39mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $155,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Investor ready! Tenant occupied property for sale. 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch home. Great investment property already generating income. No showings without accepted contract.

16. 2026-04-08
    historical $155,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Investor ready! Tenant occupied property for sale. 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch home. Great investment property already generating income. No showings without accepted contract.

17. 2024-12-29
    historical
18. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2021-05-10
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2021-04-05
    price $128,000
22. 2021-03-10
    listed $131,000 Active
23. 2016-01-13
    soldstatus $102,150
24. 2015-06-18
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2015-05-21
    historical
26. 2015-04-25
    listed $49,900 Active
27. 2002-06-07
    soldstatus $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,319 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,319 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,319
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $1,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+63.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-29 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-05 Price Changed $128,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-10 Listed $131,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $102,150 Public Records
• 2015-06-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-21 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-25 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,319 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.