1215 S Whitney St · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1990 9,075 sqft lot $114/sqft · 24% below area Est $183k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Electric range
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• TILE BACKSPLASH
• ELECTRIC RANGE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.31%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,869
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -23.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Saunders Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-1%)	9mo	$220,000	$182	83
119 Misty Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+4%)	4mo	$249,500	$197	76
108 Spoonbill Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-2%)	11mo	$209,000	$176	75
114 Spoonbill Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-8%)	4mo	$175,000	$156	68
936 S Houston St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	1mo	$229,900	$173	67
109 Misty	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+10%)	4mo	$210,000	$157	67
630 S Lamont	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	1mo	$229,000	$180	64
921 S Mccampbell	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,121 (-8%)	10mo	$199,000	$178	64
243 E Magnolia Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+9%)	2mo	$249,000	$188	61
1179 Houston S	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+15%)	9mo	$235,000	$168	57
1034 S 10th St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (+8%)	5mo	$179,900	$137	51
612 S 9th St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-7%)	7mo	$127,900	$113	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $42,236
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $120,680
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,074/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $1,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,053	+0% $1,014	+5% $975	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $793	-5% $904	+0% $1,014	+5% $1,124	+10% $1,235
Rate	-1.0pp $1,084	-0.5pp $1,049	base $1,014	+0.5pp $978	+1.0pp $941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	0.35mi
203 E Ransom Rd Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$1,145	$1.83	14d	5	0.45mi
1109 W Nelson Ave Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.85mi
2255 McMullen Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$1,569	$0.99	14d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $139,000 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   price $139,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-04-25
    listed $149,000 Active 587-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,074 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,074 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$4,074
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,682
• − Management: −$2,682
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $10,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,582
• After-tax cash flow: $9,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $139,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,074 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.