5 West Lake Dr Unit A · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Average condition 1.01 ac lot $77/sqft · 20% below area Est $94k · 20% under $470/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Park like setting gas heating and cooking pull down stairs for attic storage lawn care, snow plowing water sewer property taxes community bus clubhouse roofs water heater and more

Key facts

• Pull down stairs
• Clubhouse
• Gas cooking

Tags

• GAS HEATING
• GAS COOKING
• PULL DOWN STAIRS
• ATTIC STORAGE
• CLUBHOUSE
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.63%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,548
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 B W Lake Dr	0.05mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$56,000	$58	97
16 B Dove St	0.16mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	4mo	$73,000	$75	89
6 C Swallow St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$113	87
22 C Robin St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$158,000	$163	85
18 Dove St Unit A	0.16mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	9mo	$69,900	$72	85
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$53,000	$55	85
6 Dove St Unit D	0.24mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$80,000	$82	84
17 Heron St Unit D	0.23mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	7mo	$55,000	$57	83
12 Heron St Unit D	0.26mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$122	83
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.26mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$45,000	$46	81
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	9mo	$57,500	$59	78
13B Pheasant St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	3mo	$95,500	$87	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $12,266
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $42,998
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,999 ($93/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $404	+0% $378	+5% $353	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $310	+0% $378	+5% $447	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $398	base $378	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include community room, common area and bocciAssociation fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal and waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating presentCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Light fixturesDenLiving roomDining room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room

HOA detail $470/mo · $5,640/yr

• Likely covers: watersewergaslandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $75,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $75,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $75,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $75,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $75,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $75,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 113 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $75,000 Active 112 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $75,000 Active 105 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    pricedays on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 85 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 83 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $3,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,850–$14,550 screening

The home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. Painting the interior walls and replacing the ceiling fan and light switches can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor ceiling fan — light switches are visible
• Minor light switches — light switches are visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace ceiling fan — replacing the ceiling fan can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace light switches — replacing the light switches can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include community room, common area and bocciAssociation fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal and waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating presentCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Light fixturesDenLiving roomDining room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room

Price history

+19.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $85,900 MOMLS
• 2023-03-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $72,000 MOMLS