5 West Lake Dr Unit A · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$85,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Average condition 1.01 ac lot $89/sqft · 8% below area Est $94k · 8% under $470/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Park like setting gas heating and cooking pull down stairs for attic storage lawn care, snow plowing water sewer property taxes community bus clubhouse roofs water heater and more

Key facts

• Pull down stairs
• Clubhouse
• Gas cooking

Tags

• GAS HEATING
• GAS COOKING
• PULL DOWN STAIRS
• ATTIC STORAGE
• CLUBHOUSE
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities include community room, common area and bocci; Association fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal and water; Association name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Quad model
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments and blinds/shades; Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures; Den; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,323 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.85%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,740
• List price: $85,900
• Delta: -8.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 B Dove St	0.16mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$73,000	$75	92
6 C Swallow St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	2mo	$110,000	$113	89
22 C Robin St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	3mo	$158,000	$163	88
18 Dove St Unit A	0.16mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$69,900	$72	88
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	3mo	$53,000	$55	88
12A Robin St Unit A	0.17mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$109,900	$113	87
6 Dove St Unit D	0.24mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	3mo	$80,000	$82	86
17 Heron St Unit D	0.23mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	4mo	$55,000	$57	86
12 Heron St Unit D	0.26mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	1mo	$120,000	$122	85
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.26mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	84
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$57,500	$59	81
2C Dove St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$78,000	$80	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,082
• Equity at exit: $12,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $27,606
• Equity at exit: $7,427

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $307	+0% $278	+5% $248	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $211	+0% $278	+5% $345	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $300	base $278	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: watersewergaslandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-03
    listed $85,900 Active 179-char remark
15. 2023-03-13
    historical
16. 2023-01-20
    listed $72,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $2,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $2,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. Painting the interior walls and replacing the ceiling fan and light switches can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor ceiling fan — light switches are visible
• Minor light switches — light switches are visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both replace ceiling fan — replacing the ceiling fan can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both replace light switches — replacing the light switches can improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
ceiling fan · light switches are visible	Minor	$500–3,000
light switches · light switches are visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace ceiling fan — replacing the ceiling fan can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace light switches — replacing the light switches can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+19.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $85,900 MOMLS
• 2023-03-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $72,000 MOMLS