36216 Lynchburg Dr · Watson, LA 70706

$180,405

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2001 0.30 ac lot $140/sqft · 14% below area Est $210k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 1293 sqft of living space on a large 1/3 acre lot in the heart of Crestwood in Denham Springs. . Covered patio off the back of the home offers plenty of space for outdoor entertaining or enjoying the peaceful privacy fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Covered patio
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE LOT
• PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($899/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $138k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,262 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,200
• List price: $180,405
• Delta: -14.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10019 Lexington Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-1%)	3mo	$217,500	$169	87
36221 Lynchburg Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-8%)	3mo	$207,000	$174	83
10082 Lexington Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+4%)	10mo	$212,000	$158	77
36246 Greenville Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$168	77
36287 Greenville Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+1%)	13mo	$224,900	$173	77
10130 Nashville Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,203 (-7%)	9mo	$225,000	$187	76
10130 Memphis Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,181 (-9%)	11mo	$207,000	$175	73
36101 Greenville Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	10mo	$233,150	$173	72
36140 Lynchburg Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-8%)	10mo	$210,000	$177	71
10004 Asheville Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-1%)	14mo	$225,000	$176	70
36043 Portsmouth Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+12%)	1mo	$204,900	$142	62
35646 Melrose Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	9mo	$218,000	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,460
• Equity at exit: $26,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,153
• Equity at exit: $15,598

Cash invested: $50,513 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$946
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,228/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $180,405

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,101
• Closing costs: $5,412
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 Nashville Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,600	$1.37	43d	1	0.17mi
10552 Tumbleweed Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,750	$1.20	43d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,405 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,405 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,405 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,405 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,405 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,405 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,405 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,405 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,405 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,405 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,405 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,405 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,405 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,405 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,405 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $189,900 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Discover the potential in this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 1293 sqft of living space on a large 1/3 acre lot in the heart of Crestwood in Denham Springs.. Covered patio off the back of the home offers plenty of space for outdoor entertaining or enjoying the peaceful privacy fenced back yard.

17. 2026-04-15
    listed $189,900 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Discover the potential in this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 1293 sqft of living space on a large 1/3 acre lot in the heart of Crestwood in Denham Springs.. Covered patio off the back of the home offers plenty of space for outdoor entertaining or enjoying the peaceful privacy fenced back yard.

18. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $138,000
19. 2016-04-26
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2016-03-16
    status Pending
21. 2016-02-15
    listed $139,000 Active
22. 2016-02-15
    listed $139,000
23. 2009-08-11
    soldstatus
24. 2009-08-07
    soldstatus
25. 2008-10-07
    listed $126,500
26. 2008-10-07
    listed $126,500
27. 2002-07-29
    soldstatus
28. 2002-01-18
    listed $84,800
29. 2002-01-18
    listed $84,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,105
• − Property taxes: −$2,228
• − Insurance: −$902
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$5,248
• Taxable loss: −$2,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$511
• After-tax cash flow: $1,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+123.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $189,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $189,900 GBRMLS
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-26 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-03-16 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2016-02-15 Listed $139,000 GBRMLS
• 2016-02-15 Listed $139,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-07 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2008-10-07 Listed $126,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2008-10-07 Listed $126,500 GBRMLS
• 2002-07-29 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2002-01-18 Listed $84,800 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-01-18 Listed $84,800 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,228 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.