10 Oakwood Ter #88 · New Windsor, NY 12553

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo · 60 Days on market

Built 1966 Fair condition $200/sqft · 19% above area Est $160k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living at 10 Oakwood Terrace, Unit #88! This spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath co-op offers comfort, convenience, and great value in one desirable package. Step inside to find a generously sized living room filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing out to your own private balcony—perfect for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee. The eat-in kitchen provides a functional layout with ample space for dining, while both bedrooms are well-proportioned and offer plenty of storage. Additional storage throughout the unit ensures everything has its place. This well-maintained complex offers an array of included benefits. The monthly maintenance fee covers property taxes, master insurance, common area and grounds maintenance, snow removal, garbage collection, pool access, and water/sewer—making budgeting simple and predictable. Additional highlights include a community pool, laundry facilities and a private, lockable storage closet conveniently located in the basement of the building. Whether you’re looking to own for less than renting or invest in your future, this inviting co-op is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Laundry facilities
• Community pool
• Private balcony

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• LOCKABLE STORAGE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, cost of living D+.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.38%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,696
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 18.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,311
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,272
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$742
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,601

Max offer price $149,077

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-217	+0% $-283	+5% $-348	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-371	+0% $-283	+5% $-194	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-234	base $-283	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Cross St New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	992	$2,250	$2.27	44d	1	0.56mi
40 Cedar Ln Unit 9 New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	770	$1,700	$2.21	14d	1	0.74mi
810 Blooming Grove Tpke New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	680	$1,875	$2.76	14d	2	1.10mi
276 Temple Hill Rd New Windsor, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1048	$2,450	$2.34	14d	2	1.15mi
2201 Vails Gate Heights Dr Vails Gate, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	897	$2,250	$2.51	14d	9	1.26mi
2 Mertes Ln New Windsor, NY	3.0	1.0	806	$2,250	$2.79	14d	1	1.46mi
109 Myrtle Ave New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$2,200	$2.04	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingsnow removalinsurancepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-22
   listed $190,000 Active 1187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

   Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living at 10 Oakwood Terrace, Unit #88! This spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath co-op offers comfort, convenience, and great value in one desirable package. Step inside to find a generously sized living room filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing out to your own private balcony—perfect for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee. The eat-in kitchen provides a functional layout with ample space for dining, while both bedrooms are well-proportioned and offer plenty of storage. Additional storage throughout the unit ensures everything has its place. This well-maintained complex offers an array of included benefits. The monthly maintenance fee covers property taxes, master insurance, common area and grounds maintenance, snow removal, garbage collection, pool access, and water/sewer—making budgeting simple and predictable. Additional highlights include a community pool, laundry facilities and a private, lockable storage closet conveniently located in the basement of the building. Whether you’re looking to own for less than renting or invest in your future, this inviting co-op is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − HOA: −$8,904
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$6,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo is in fair condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Some discoloration on walls
• Minor Flooring — Carpeted floors in fair condition
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinets
• Minor Appliances — Dated appliances

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in appearance
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel
• Resale Kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the cabinets can make the kitchen more appealing
• Resale Appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Some discoloration on walls	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Carpeted floors in fair condition	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen cabinets · Dated cabinets	Minor	$500–3,000
Appliances · Dated appliances	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in appearance ↑
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel ↑
• Resale Kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the cabinets can make the kitchen more appealing ↑
• Resale Appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Windsor

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Windsor, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 27,384
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid