126 Laurel Cir · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot Est $347k · 32% under $158/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath chalet in Fawn Lake is a great opportunity for anyone looking for a starter home or a vacation retreat in a full amenity community! The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas under vaulted ceilings with tons of natural light. A brick-faced wood-burning fireplace is the showcase of the the living room, and there's a breakfast bar in the kitchen for easy morning routines. The master suite with full bathroom is on the main level, and you'll find two more bedrooms and a full bath upstairs. Out front there's a large deck, and out back, a screened-in porch providing options for a great spot to relax. It does need some updating, but the bones are solid, a

Key facts

• Large deck
• Outdoor pool
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE DECK
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• ACCESS TO WESTCOLANG LAKE
• INDOOR POOL
• OUTDOOR POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,900; Amenities include clubhouse, meeting room, fitness center, pool (indoor and outdoor), tennis courts, playground, game room, game court (exterior), lake access, fishing, and permitted powered boats; Security provided by the community

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch (screened); Sloped lot with few trees; Waterfront on Fawn Lake; Asphalt road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Living room wood-burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($798/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Fawn Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,234 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,116
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Lower Lakeview Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+2%)	6mo	$657,500	$472	82
214 Lower Lakeview Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-3%)	1mo	$205,000	$155	74
108 Minnow Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-6%)	10mo	$325,000	$253	63
437 Westcolang Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-10%)	4mo	$253,000	$205	48
114 Rainbow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-6%)	22mo	$370,000	$286	37
124 Rainbow Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (+12%)	16mo	$300,000	$195	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $132,300
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $386,428
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$158
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $133	+0% $66	+5% $0	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-22	+0% $66	+5% $155	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $126	base $66	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $158 · $1,896/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$604/yr (+$50/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − HOA: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$738
• After-tax cash flow: $1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $235,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,505 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.