12346 Gainsborough Dr · Houston, TX 77031

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1975 8,267 sqft lot $120/sqft · 9% below area Est $275k · 9% under $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

Key facts

• Blown in insulation
• Radiant barrier
• Recent roof

Tags

• RECENT ROOF
• RECENT HVAC
• BLOWN IN INSULATION
• RADIANT BARRIER
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DOUBLE OVENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $943 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $250k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,384
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -9.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9710 Ravensworth Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,179 (+5%)	7mo	$295,000	$135	74
9566 Ravensworth Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,049 (-2%)	13mo	$235,000	$115	69
12011 Chessington Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,020 (-3%)	2mo	$280,000	$139	69
12327 Welland Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,011 (-3%)	6mo	$245,000	$122	68
12207 Chartwell Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,855 (-11%)	0mo	$259,999	$140	67
12531 Lancelot Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,024 (-3%)	1mo	$291,000	$144	64
12310 Vanderheath Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,842 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$119	59
12411 Caren Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-11%)	2mo	$269,900	$146	53
9578 W Airport Blvd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-15%)	6mo	$240,000	$136	52
11702 N Petersham Dr SE	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,319 (+11%)	13mo	$270,000	$116	46
12015 Manorgate Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-8%)	11mo	$325,000	$169	45
11602 Dover St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-5%)	14mo	$598,000	$301	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $21,917
• Equity at exit: $77,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $89,461
• Equity at exit: $96,820

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77031

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,376/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,523

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12700 Stafford Rd Stafford, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,780	$1.58	2d	14	0.68mi
11101 W Airport Blvd Stafford, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1112	$4,366	$3.93	24d	39	1.04mi
11117 Signal Way Stafford, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1143	$3,662	$3.20	12d	83	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

4. 2026-04-06
   listed $249,900 Active 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

5. 2026-04-06
   historical

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   RECENT ROOF 2024!!! RECENT HVAC 2024!!! BLOWN IN INSULATION AND RADIANT BARRIER IN THE ATTIC TO MAKE THE HOME MORE EFFICIENT. lovely brick home in the heart of Glenshire is very spacious and has a fantastic floor plan. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms, formal dining room and large family room plus den make this home versatile with space for all your family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is nicely updated with granite counters and painted white cabinets. Double ovens for the cook in the family. The primary bathroom is updated to include large walk in shower and double sink vanity. Plenty of storage too! French Doors open to the gorgeous back yard with new fence installed in 2024. This home has been very well maintained and updated! Please request the list of updates and make your appointment to see this fabulous home today - it won't last long.

6. 2026-02-16
   listed $268,000 Active
7. 2026-02-16
   historical
8. 2025-10-07
   price $275,000
9. 2025-10-05
   status Active
10. 2025-10-04
    historical
11. 2025-08-26
    listed $277,000 Active
12. 2025-08-26
    historical
13. 2025-05-19
    listed $287,000 Active
14. 2025-05-19
    historical
15. 2025-04-12
    price $299,000
16. 2025-03-27
    listed $310,000 Active
17. 1999-06-14
    soldstatus
18. 1999-06-01
    soldstatus $96,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$6,376
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$214
• After-tax cash flow: $4,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 15,740

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 25% Black 20% White 14% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Current HPI: 235.9144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+158.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $268,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $277,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $287,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 1999-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,376 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.